April 8th Severe Weather Potential

The first chance at severe weather across the area was on the 6th ..however…only one storm report in Western NY came out of that threat.

The next chance becomes April 8th thursday afternoon between 18 Z and 00z. This appears to be a more bonafide threat then what the 6th was…as the 6th had high bust potential as we were marginal parameters and relying on a warm front being the trigger.

This time around once again we also have marginal parameters but this time we also have a much stronger trigger in a cold front advancing into very warm surface temperatures that will be in the 70s to lower 80s. The air behind this front is going to take the region back to below normal temperatures. So this go around there is a clashing of air masses and that factor should contribute to producing a severe weather potential

CAPE levels look between 750 and 1300, depending on whether one looks at the NAM/GFS

LIFT INDEX is between minus 2 and minus 4

LAPSE RATES are 6.0-6.5 and greater

BULK SHEAR looks to be between 30-40 knots…

All this points out to the potential for severe storms with supercell potential with the ability to produce damaging gusty winds and hail.

Due to the difference between the two air masses, we will not completely rule out an isolated tornado or two but at this point i would put the tornado threat at a less then 2% occurrence.

The greatest threat for severe weather would be within the red lines as that is the region that has the better parameters.

In addition to the winds, hail potential ..these storms will also be capable of producing heavy rains.