More Rain & Severe Potential On The Way!

Well across the region today we are experiencing a quiet weather day. Some scattered showers coming off the great lakes but the region that was battered yesterday with 107 tornado reports is all quiet with a chance for cleanup and a chance to begin the rebuild process. Our thoughts and prayers go out to the areas that were hit hard yesterday.

Meanwhile, the world of weather does not stop despite the disaster that it may cause. We turn our attention to the next time frame which is the 19-20th and we actually started talking about this system already way back on the 10th of the month as being part of the next 10 days of wet weather. We mentioned on the 14th that it was also the next shot at severe weather.

So lets look at the system in reference. Unfortunately, the source for the European Computer Images was not available and neither was the regular source of images so we had to turn to some place new for the images being used.

The above is the GFS and once again you see a low pressure cutting west into the great lakes and this is going to cause a cold front to move across the region.

This above is the NAM..you can also see that the NAM is in relative general agreement with the GFS as far as taking the system to the lakes.

So lets look at the breakdown of severe weather parameters from each of the models above.

Starting first with the GFS at 78 hrs out or 18 Z

CAPE –Across W PA 1000-2000

South of MD border 500-3000

84 hrs it is 500-1000 from the southern tier of PA from west pa to east side and then greater as you head south.

Lift index for that time period –4 to – 8 across the aforementioned areas.

SWEAT index which is the severe weather threat index..

400-450 in western PA stretching north and then south beyond PA and only 250 in the east at 78 hrs ..however by 84 hrs the SWEAT index pushes east into eastern regions.

Now when you look at the NAM for the severe parameters it is a little different then the GFS.

For CAPE across western PA the NAM only has 500-1000 at 78 hrs while the greatest CAPE if from South Central Pa into SE PA into SNJ and points south and this goes as high as 3000. By 81 hrs we now have CAPE of 1000-1500 across SW PA  and then as high as 3000 into SE PA . By 84 hrs we go from 500-1000 from SW PA to 1500-3000 from east central PA into SE PA.Lift index goes –2 to –6. SWEAT index is 350-400 across the region at 78 hrs and EGI or Energy Helicity available is 1.0-1.5 . By 84 hrs there is a pocket in E Central PA that is higher then 1.5.

So, all and all , severe weather parameters in place are supportive at another shot at severe weather with the possibility of tornados not being able to be ruled out. Timing looks to be wednesday afternoon and night. Between now and then the parameters and timing may shift around but the general zone to be in for severe weather is below:

Another possibility is we could be looking at another heavy rain event which will add to any flooding concerns .

Stay tuned for more information