Cool and Potentially Wet Across the Northeast and Mid Atlantic the next 10 days.

If recent guidance is any indication the weather across the mid atlantic into the NE is going to take a turn downhill and we could potentially be looking at cooler weather with temperatures below normal and also wetter weather. Lets look at the teleconnections first that the guidance is showing:

NAO while it has been positive recently looks to be going into the tank. Last nights ECM run at 00z actually showed this quite well.

PNA while being neutral negative looks to go neutral positive which would be indicative along with the NAO of a trough into the east.

Finally the AO which has been positive is expected as well to take a tumble. All these teleconnections suggest that the weather across the Mid Atlantic into the Northeast is going to take a turn to the colder and potentially wetter side of the weather spectrum.

Lets see what CPC has and if they agree with the above thinking:

You can see that within the next 6-10 days conditions are expected to be below normal and precipitation?

Guidance is indicating that it will be above normal. Matter of fact there could be some flooding across parts of the area if the guidance is correct.

So lets look at what is at least going to happen over the next 5 days.

On the latest 12 Z ECM you can see that there is a trough ejecting from the central part of the country and heading towards the Northeast. Before this happens a couple things will occur. First and foremost is that ejecting trough which comes out of the rockies will produce severe weather chances across parts of the south. We issued that map earlier and in case you missed it we will post it here again:

Now as that trough and cold front ejects towards the east from that region you can see the ECM develops an area of low pressure over the south around the GOM and then moves that towards the NE.

The GFS is not that far away in its depiction of this happening at 12 Z though the timing is a little off and this makes the low pressure slower and it also tends to make it more like a winter type storm system that goes off to the southeast  and OTS. Could it be correct? Always that possibility but as we have seen more times then not..the GFS can be too cold which causes these type of occurrences to be modeled.

So while there is some questions to the timing of the precipitation both models agree on the trough and cold front advancing to the east and guidance does agree with the weather taking a turn to the cooler side & if guidance is correct it will not be just cool but as well potentially wet with the chance for some heavy rain spreading from the SW towards the Northeast! ECM at 12 Z indicates anywhere from 1.5-3.00 inches of rain could fall with in the next 5-6 days.

Stay tuned for more information !