Severe Potential May Shift Focus To The East

Dewpoints in the 60-70 range

Lift Index –2 to –8

CAPE - 500-2500 Highest  south lowest North

400-450 SWEAT index

EHI is 1.2 –2.5 across the region..

Wind shear : 50-60 KT LLJ

Trigger: Approaching cold front and Upper Level Trough

No folks, we are not basing this on a model that claims to have  taken a sample out of yesterdays atmosphere over GA/ Alabama region…rather we are basing this severe potential off the severe weather parameters that are in place across the region as being shown by the most recent 00z guidance.

As this area moves off towards the NE it will be responsible for some very heavy rains. It is possible for some storms north of the area but with the general lack of any parameters in place…we have opted to take the NON SEVERE approach above the MD border..

The most likely area for the severe should be in the red zone as this is where parameters are highest. This could also be the area that receives the best chance of tornados with the EHI across that region being quite high.

Please folks if you are in these regions keep an eye to the sky and as usual we will be on Facebook on Dr Greg Forbes page helping people thru the severe weather.

We are proud to pass on the fact that we helped out a mother of a 6 month old child in W KY where a tornado warned cell was in her vicinity. With experience and latest base reflectivity radar, radial velocity radar we were able to be with her every moment of the storm and let her know that it would pass by her safely to the north while she got passed by to the south with another storm. We were glad to be there and help her thru that frightening time!

Folks it is important to keep in mind that a Tornado watch when issued means that conditions are favorable but not a guarantee of a tornado happening.

Be ware as some folks out there claiming to be pro mets are scaring people by telling them that they guarantee a tornado is heading there way etc. Stay clear away from these type of people!

Here at Real Wx Services we have been upfront and honest from day 1 in the fact that we do not operate with a Meteorological degree..but we do operate with over 20 years of experience forecasting the weather and nearly 36 years of passion and desire of following the weather! We are far from perfect as weather forecasting is not an exact science so we learn daily.

Stay tuned for more information if it becomes necessary on this system