Severe Weather On the 20th Across The Mid Atlantic & Northeast

We have no reason to change our thinking that was issued a couple days ago. While guidance has shifted back and forth with on again severe chances to off again severe chances..as was the case during the winter the guidance usually ends up coming back to what it was originally anticipating and showing.

Timing of the front looks to be between 18 Z and 00z on wednesday. This should allow the benefit of daytime heating to take place sending temperatures into the 70s and dewpoints in the 60s.

The area from about Eastern PA into the Delmarva region looks to be the best targeted area with CAPE values of 1000-1500. SWEAT index looks to be around 350.

With the SWEAT index remaining below 400 we are not anticipating any tornados but the threat of winds in excess of 60 MPH will be possible with any of the stronger storms.

We are currently monitoring the situation taking shape today across the midwest into the south. Current thinking is storms should begin to fire up after 4 PM…