Tuesday, April 5, 2011

Where do we go from here? What is next?

If you are a member of the Real Wx Service forum & Chat ..I have been talking about the spring and how its going to be a cooler then normal spring overall and we would have times of warmer weather but these times would be followed up by strong cold fronts with colder then normal air behind them. This is what just happened yesterday.. Temperatures for example at TTN (trenton) & KPHL (Philadelphia) reached into the mid 70s. Today however,

sfc_con_temp (2)

A powerful cold front came thru so today the high temperatures occurred at midnight and they have been dropping to levels below normal ever since.

This powerful cold front was preceded by what we would consider an epic outbreak of severe weather. We had talked about this potential already nearly 5 days ahead of time..

yesterday

Only a few managed reports further north fell today ..

today

As the warm front had a hard time making its way further north and the timing of the front as well being in the very early morning hours.

Guidance now suggests that at least for the next few days we will be under the influence of a seasonal to below normal regime until about the later part of the weekend , beginning of the week where once again temperatures will rebound and we could be looking at temperatures above normal in the 60s and perhaps 70s..

12zeuro850mbTSLPNA144

And despite timing differences, again as if on schedule and cue another cold front moves thru and brings another round of cooler then normal weather. 12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192

European Computer model has a later passage of the cold front compared to the GFS..

12zgfs850mbTSLPNA156

And this pattern looks to continue thru out the forseeable future. Matter of fact the 12 Z GFS suggests that the pattern could take such a turn for below normal that it has a rain to snow storm for locations such as ABE..

12zgfs850mbTSLPp12372

12zgfs850mbTSLPp12384

Of course this is way out in fantasy land and probably will not be there just an hr from now on the 18 Z run but it does show how the pattern does indeed seem to be set where we will get warm and then below normal due to these cold fronts and then rebound once again. This could indicate as we get deeper into the warmer months the potential for even more Epic Severe Weather Events!

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