If you have been following this blog or these discussions you will remember that we have been talking about a wetter then normal spring and a cooler then normal spring across the vast majority of the region.
Temperature departures for the month of March into April
So you can see from the above images that this has been the case across vast majority of the region. If guidance is any indication the pattern that has been in place of milder then normal weather for a day or two followed by cooler weather will continue.
Lets look at two different time periods but this is over the next 10 days. We are going to look to the European Computer Model and the GFS..which the ECM has been very consistent with this scenario for some time now..
First period up is the 16-17th
ECM brings a low pressure from the Oklahoma region into the Ohio Valley area and then off the coast and has some much colder air aloft across the region.
12 Z GFS is in relative agreement with this but as you can tell by the 168 hr it keeps the primary stronger and does not really develop the low along the coast. Never the less both models are wet with this system.
Next system up is the tuesday to wednesday time frame or the 19th to 20th…
ECM brings a low from the SW up into the Ohio valley with a surge of warmer air ahead of it. However there is also what appears to be a trough still effecting the NE.
And again you can see the GFS essentially agrees with the ECM but develops a surface low along the coast at 240 hours out.
So there is some slight disagreement but they both agree that there will be two major systems effecting the region with abundant moisture..Matter of fact the ECM @ 12 Z over the next ten days has a widespread 2 inches plus with a good portion of western and eastern Pa in the 3-4 inch range of rainfall.
If these systems materialize as guidance is suggesting we will then be looking at the potential for flooding across the region.
Stay tuned for further information!
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