PGI 46 L 00z Model Runs..

In the last post I pretty much mentioned about how the 12 Z GFS run did not make much synoptic sense with what it did with the potential development of PGI 46 L

So hence tonight we have a change in the GFS run..

Instead of developing two cyclones and merging into one..this go around it only develops one cyclone. Instead of moving west and stalling over the YUCATAN for 3 days it moves ENE and crosses CUBA..meanwhile strengthening..

From there moves NE across the Bahamas and then moves up along the SE Coast but well off shore and then up the east coast again well off shore.

So as one can see there is a pretty substantial change in the modeling once again at least in regards to the GFS with the potential of this system.

Nothing really has changed with this system as far as its environment is concerned. Shear is still only 5-10 knots with decent divergence but the best convergence is to its east. Vorticity still remains stretched out and elongated as well,,

Also the greatest vorticity is off to its SE as well. So as you can see nothing has really changed that much involving its surrounding. All that remains is to see whether or not this begins to develop into a potential cyclone. Right now it still remains a models version of what it thinks may occur,

00z ECM on the other hand has also switched solutions and now shows a potential for a western side of FL impact from a much stronger system then what the 12 Z run was showing.

Now, as of 2 AM NHC now has PGI46 L as a highlighted potential at 10 % and that is a percentage that we at R.W.S can completely agree with. However, when looking at these model runs it is important to keep in mind that we are talking about something in the 8-10 day range and this is why we are seeing different solutions. Models still are essentially clueless as to whats going to happen. Once we have an actual center of circulation develop they should begin to be given more serious looking into but meanwhile just be used for the synoptic setup!