Wednesday, September 15, 2010

IGOR could strengthen some again! The storm that refuses to die!

20100915.1645.goes-13.ir.11L.IGOR.115kts.942mb.19.6N.54.6W.100pc

AOI1_ir_loop

AOI1_wv_loop

Hurricane IGOR has been going thru an ERC or Eye Wall Replacement Cycle. If this ERC can finish there once again could be an opportunity for IGOR to restrengthen. The environment which was increasing shear has since decreased..

wg8shr

wg8sht

Current shear shows about 10-20 knots across the system. This is not enough to cause rapid weakening but it is enough to keep things more on the slow side. The reason it is possible that it could restrengthen is based on the premise of yesterday the shear was higher and the shear tendency was increasing and it managed to still strengthen. So at the very least it should be able to maintain its intensity but I would not be surprised at all if it also strengthened once again. All dependent on when the ERC would end.

Storm-11-Spaghetti

Overall no changes to the thinking of the track with Bermuda being in the target zone of this powerful hurricane. Residents of Bermuda have been placed by R.W.S under a hurricane watch for the potential of this system passing near or even over Bermuda.

24 hr coverage will begin tonight after 1 AM and will then continue over the next 48 hrs. Next update after 1 AM.

No comments:

Post a Comment