Earl Not Making Landfall On The East Coast & Other Tropical Thoughts!

Real Wx Services is happy to pronounce that Earl, which is now a Tropical Storm, and has been since this afternoon in our opinion , is not making landfall anywhere on the East Coast. Despite the cries of Alarm and the panic that ensued and the media hype of Earl becoming a Category 5 and Earl going to be a Category 1 or 2 hurricane when near CAPE COD..and models such as the GFS showing an east coast landfall, the UKMET showing an east coast landfall..Despite all this…Earl degenerated into a Tropical Storm and is staying well southeast of Cape Cod..

The highest wind gust i could find was at Marthas Vineyard which was 43 mph and that was earlier in the evening yesterday.

The consensus of majority of the models continues to be Nova Scotia and that is where we have been saying this would indeed make landfall.

This will be the last report on what was at one time Hurricane Earl ..which make no mistake was a Major Hurricane at one point but will be remembered as the East Coast Hype Hurricane…

Perhaps if people keep saying a hurricane is going to hit the East Coast above 40 N it will.. but anyone can throw a dart in the dark and eventually hit as well.

So lets turn our attention to what was once Gaston..Yes, the 7th Tropical cyclone of the season…perhaps the shortest lived Tropical Cyclone as well.

So lets look at some images of what was Gaston..

Currently the area is considered an invest by National Hurricane Center..however.. I am under the opinion that at 25 KT and 1008 MBS that this is a Tropical Depression once again and since its the same Energy that use to be Gaston ..if this were to become a Tropical Storm again..then this would once again be Gaston. However..before we can determine what could or potentially could not happen with this invest , lets look at its environment. Does the environment support developing further?

Divergence is currently good with this system but at the present time it is lacking convergence and the best areas lie NE or completely to the south.

Shear across the system is about 10-20 knots. Vorticity is rather stretched out and elongated (unfortunately that image was not available to capture) ..but the systems biggest problem at this point and time is the dry air…

The system appears to be heading off to the west perhaps west northwest. At this point and time, even though we think this could be classified as a depression…its important to note that the 00z ECM does not develop this system. It could be that the ECM is actually picking up on the dry air and the shear.

You can see the wall of shear to its west and its north..So presently I believe there is about a 50 % chance that this could redevelop but also a 50% chance that it could just dissipate.

Stay tuned for further updates.