IGOR this morning is a very disorganized storm and appears to be a storm that is being influenced by shear and some dry air entrainment as well. Best convergence lies to the northwest of the center while divergence is pretty decent. There is an anticyclone in the near vicinity of the system but shear is anywhere from 10-30 knots across the system itself..Not the center per say but the system as a whole.
Models still show a general west to west northwest to a NW track with one model still doing a loop with the system.
With the convection having warmed and faded pretty much in the overnight period ..i am not sure whether or not I fully agree with this having maintained its intensity. Pressure appears to be rising from 995 mbs to 998 mbs using DVORAK. So i think right now we are still actually seeing a weakening phase with this particular system.
Basically, right now it seems that IGOR is a little north of the track laid out by the National Hurricane center as a WNW motion appears more evident on satellite. This motion should continue for the next 24+ hours. At this point and time it appears the storm will still safely go to the north of the islands and all indications are that this will not threaten the east coast.
Next update will be later tonight after 1 AM
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