These are the latest images on IGOR. IGOR has once again become a tropical storm as we were talking about this being a possibility if the convection could maintain itself.
As you can tell from the images above..not too much has really changed in the development stages of this system. IGOR is still a sheared tropical cyclone. The one thing to take notice of is his large size. However..the center still remains on the eastern side of the convection.
For a storm to really strengthen and get its act together you would like to see the center get pulled underneath the convection. Thru out IGORS existence so far he has never been able to really do this.
IGOR has defied the thinking of the models and defied the thinking of even NHC. By this time of this writing IGOR was expected to be a 55 KT storm (See NHC discussion 9.8 11 AM) and no model showed IGOR being downgraded to a Tropical Depression such as occurred yesterday. This tells me as a forecaster that IGOR might not always do as is expected ..so a more careful eye will have to be kept on the system.
While IGORS winds have come up the pressure is not really dropping. As of 12 Z the pressure was still 1004 mbs. So this also argues that at least up until that time the system is not really deepening or getting its act together or getting any stronger.
Now, on the image above the one thing I want to call your attention to is the low pressure that is to the NE of IGOR. What type of influence will this low pressure have on IGOR? Could this low pressure get tangled up in IGOR and cause IGOR to get pulled NW sooner? There are things we are going to have to watch over the next 24 hours. Associated with this low pressure area is some very strong shear.
Shear as high as 40-50 knots. If IGOR ends up moving towards this area or if this area ends up drifting closer to IGOR this could cause another hindrance in the development of the system.
Presently there is about 10-20 knots of shear around the system with an anticyclone not too far off to the NE. The greatest divergence and convergence actually lies west of the system.
The models continue to show some rather strange tracks with some looping of the system possible..while others show the system moving west north west with some showing a strong curve to the NW..
At this time it pretty much appears as if the islands off to the west of the system should pretty much remain out of the path of this system as it should pass by well to the NE of the islands.
Stay tuned for updates on this developing cyclone.
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