Invest 96 L

Well, there certainly has been alot of talk about this area and this system as far as watching for the next potential area to develop.

The above is a most recent image of Invest 96 L. Currently the center is not very well defined and is not located where the best convection is which is well east to the south of Florida and cuba.  The area of low pressure is actually much further to the west of that area.

So..with an invest actually on the charts now it comes time to start looking at the environment around the invest and whether or not this invest has the type of environment conducive to strengthening.

First thing we are going to look at is the shear..

Shear in the immediate area surrounding where the center is located is really light at about 5-10 knots. However..surrounding this area of 5-10 knots to its north and to its east is a much higher shear environment.

Convergence and divergence shows that the best areas are actually to the east of the actual area of invest. The vorticity is really stretched out and the best lies to the east as well.

So what we are looking at right now is a very large circulation or very broad area of low pressure. A monsoonal trough of low pressure so to speak. There is a high likely hood that this will develop into a depression but i think the development is going to be slow. At this point and time I am not sure whether this will actually become a named system or not due to its broad nature.

We will continue to monitor the situation and go over the latest guidance as it comes in.

Regardless of development this system is going to be responsible for some heavy tropical rains across the SE in the days ahead.