Perhaps the good news that was started earlier in the day continues in the overnight hours as IGOR approaches BERMUDA he is unravelling much faster then what National hurricane Center thought considering they kept IGOR as a 80-85 KT hurricane over the next 72 hrs from 11 PM yesterday. Now about 4 hours ago.
AS of 2 AM he is now a 75 KT ..pressure 949 MBS and on the rise..
This is one reason why you can not always rely on the weather models but instead have to rely on satellite and water vapor and real time observations.
This was an except from NHC at 11 PM
FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...IGOR WILL BE
WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY
AND IN FACT...THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODEL KEEPS IGOR WITH NO
CHANGE FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
Well, I would have to say that IGOR is not in a favorable environment..
Majority of the system is under 10-30 knots of shear so its pretty easy to determine why IGOR is weakening. There is even higher shear to the North in the direction it is moving. The other factor that leads to the weakening and a less favorable environment is the cooler waters it is over..
So again, perhaps a little too much leaning upon the intensity models considering the environment is far from favorable.
Never the less, conditions are going to be deteriorating across the islands in the overnight hours and thru the day tomorrow.
Current radar shows that rain bands from IGOR are already affecting the island.
Igor is presently moving off towards the NNW and pretty slowly at 12 MPH. This means that conditions across bermuda are going to be fairly bad for a decent amount of time..
Stay tuned for further updates as IGOR bears down on Bermuda!
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