Tropical Storm Matthew Still Racing West!

You can see by watching the IR loop above that Matthew has gone from having little if any convection to looking like a big round ball of convection with some cold cloud tops. One would think that looking at the convection that this has to  be deepening and intensifying but going according to the NAVY site (first image above) and the ADT (DVORAK) ..the system is still a 40 KT system and 1005 MB pressure according to the NAVY site at 6 Z…

Latest ADT as of 6:15 Z actually has the weakening flag on and the constraint limits set.

It also shows the center on the east side of the deep convection.

Majority of the 6 Z models have actually come in further south from there earlier runs ..However..unless Matthew slows down or starts gaining latitude he is going to come on land more south then what they show and also alot quicker then what NHC was expecting when they put there update out at 11 PM.

It would appear that unless these conditions above change that Matthew will be making landfall in about 12 hrs or less.

We mentioned how the steering winds would keep this on a due West track for the most part with maybe a touch of just north of due west and that does not look to change.. at least not anytime soon. At least for the next 48 hrs.

So not only is landfall getting with in range but there is also the possibility that this could end up going south of the Penninsula as well.

I want to stress once again that this is not the system that the models are showing moving towards florida. Yes i realize that a few of them due show a north turn but ..a few compared to the majority generally means that they are the outliers.

It will be interesting to see whether NHC holds with the intensity call due to ADT and what the NAVY site is showing or if they up the intensity because of the deep convection. At this point i think it could go either direction as far as what they decide. Convection does argue that its intensifying but at the same time ADT and pressure says otherwise…

Regardless there will be heavy rains and gusty winds across Central America that will produce Landslides. If you are not prepared…my best advice is to prepare now!