So here is a look at tropical storm Lisa. My thinking is that NHC had been way to quick to jump on this and ever since they have this thing has been unimpressive and really ragged.
What is even more interesting is despite the movements of the system they continue to show the track as off to the WNW.
Finally as of 11 PM they come out and acknowledge that this is barely a tropical storm..I would go so far to say this is not a tropical storm by any stretch of the imagination. And while they have finally come out and say that ..they still show a track that takes this WNW
Problem is this is moving due East and not to the WNW..and this clearly does show the east movement..
So the question really becomes why show a WNW track when the system is clearly not moving WNW? It is almost as if in there track they are not even acknowledging the movement of the system.
We have talked about the negative conditions that this system had to overcome in order to develop and how the water temperatures were indeed not favorable..
The image above shows how this is over the cooler waters with the warmer waters to its south ..however more important is this image shows the track has been anything but what they are showing it as projected to be.
Furthermore..also showed how the dry air seemed to be approaching this system and that definitely has indeed been the case..
Dry air all around the system, cooler waters, and light shear..the combination of the three have been essentially keeping this in check and essentially tearing the system down, even though from the beginning there was not that much to tear down.
So, the end story is that I do not see much of a chance for this to intensify and it should continue to go downhill once again.
Just another example of models do not have a clear handle on these systems unless they are truly developed.
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