As of 18 Z IGOR’S pressure was up to 940 MBS and was down to a 115 KT storm. However, now at this present time it appears as though IGOR could be reintensifying slightly again as convection appears to be trying to wrap around the center again. So we will probably continue to have fluctuations in intensity.
At the present time shear is about 10-20 knots across the system.
And unlike any other tropical systems this year this one does not really seem to be effected or hindered by dry air and there really is not any dry air around or near the system. Its weakening from time to time can be blamed on a combination of a few things.
1. Whenever it goes thru an ERC this can cause weakening but also after complete can re intensify.
2. Shear –while shear is not strong enough to cause unraveling it is just enough to keep in check and from time to time cause some weakening or fluctuating.
3. The slow speed of the system. When ever a system moves slowly it causes upwelling of the waters.
Dynamical models continue to show the only land being effected by this system is Bermuda.
So there is no change in the forecast track or the philosophy behind it. Residents of Bermuda should be making preparations. This will not WIPE out the island but it will cause damage and wide spread power outages and flooding!
Stay tuned for more updates.
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