Perhaps some more weakening?

If its any indication the pressure on IGOR appears to have been rising and looks like it should be around 1006 mbs at the 5 AM update. IGOR should also be a 35 KT tropical storm. Not sure if this weakening was something that was anticipated to occur or not being that the NHC had this as a 45 KT tropical storm by 12 Z…

So what is going on? You will only get this type of in depth look at what is happening with Real Wx Services.

First off, shear has actually increased to 20-30 knots across the system. When ever you have moderately strong shear in place then that also makes the dry air around the system of more effect as it gets entrained into the system. So that brings up the question-do we have dry air around the system?

As you can tell from the above image..dry air indeed is a problem and with the shear it makes that dry air much more important.

The other problem continues to be the area of low pressure to the NE –better known as PGI 42L. You can see how the vorticity is kind of being shared between the two which makes it stretched out and elongated.

So ATM, IGOR is a sheared tropical cyclone being effected by three things which are hampering or hindering development.

1. Shear 20-30 knots

2. Dry Air

3, PGI 42 L

So the development of this system should continue to be slow to occur and I would not be surprised to see further weakening until the three things mentioned above were to change.

As far as tracking of the system is concerned this should mainly continue to move off to the West North West and the ideal of recurve is still the most likely scenario with this not effecting the East Coast.

Most of the 6 Z models are now starting to show this scenario of recurve even more.

As this system continues to move West Northwest it will still have a environment filled with dry air out ahead of it.

While I am not currently thinking anything like GASTON could occur..it has also got to be a scenario laid on the table. It will be interesting to see if this system can overcome the negative factors that are in place right now!