Presently IGOR is maintaining his current strength of 115 KT low end CAT 4 Hurricane. However, the question is how long does it maintain this intensity as it heads off in a slow moving WNW direction?
Two important factors in our opinion.
1. Slow movement with a large storm is going to cause upwelling of shallow layers of warm water which this can have two purposes.
A. it can cause the system not to make it to its true potential ..aka denied CAT 5
B. It can actually induce weakening..
2. Increasing shear. Now, the NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER can say all it wants that it is in an environment conducive for strengthening..however..we all know words can be cheap and also a picture speaks louder then words.
So with that said lets look at 15 Z shear and shear tendency..
Now I ask the question does 20-40 knots of shear seem conducive to strengthening? Does it seem like an environment conducive to strengthening? Combine this shear with ERC commencements and IGOR could easily unravel further…will he –yet to be determined.
Here at R.W.S we like to tell things as they are and that is exactly what this post is doing and the readers know that i have been talking about this increase in shear for 24 hrs now.
Residents of Bermuda continue to follow this closely because if anyone is in line for potential effects and or landfall of this system it is you!
Next update will be at or after 1 AM as personal life job interference occurs!
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