Potential For Track To Shift West Further To The North..

While the past two updates have indeed shifted slightly to the east ..there is concern that the next update could very well shift the track further to the west ..further up the coast putting Eastern LI to Eastern Maine in the potential for Landfall.

Depending on whether the 6 Z models is the real deal or if at 12 Z they shift once again further to the east. However, this is really the first time where the whole model camp as a whole has shifted west and with a decent amount going over parts of Southern New England.

As of the present time Hurricane Earl is not to the west nor the east of the track presented by NHC but rather following the track expected. So, in that sense there may not be any cause for concern as the official track keeps the system off shore and thus far its following the expectations.

NOTE: THIS IS NOT CALLING FOR AN EAST COAST LANDFALL…

The reason for that note is pretty self explanatory. While the models at 6 Z have shifted west..they are simply only models depictions to be used as guidance and in Real Wx Services viewpoint they do not take precedence over now casting observations & satellite and the environment.

So lets get into the heart of this update. First lets look at some current images and see what we can decipher from these images.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-vis.html

Put the loop into motion and click on the trop plots and you will see two things. The first thing you will see is that it is following the plots laid out. Its neither to the west or the east or north or the south but right along the track.

The next thing that you should take notice of is the eye itself. It appears as if the eye is starting to collapse. Wait this can not be can it? Well lets look at the water vapor image

You can kind of see on this image that the NW side is starting to erode away.. Now this image does not make it look like its going to be that detrimental but now lets look at yet one more image. This image is going to be the infrared loop.

Now i call your attention to the NW side of the system once again. Now on this loop you can clearly see how this northwestern side is eroding away. It also appears that could be the reason why it appears that the eye is collapsing. Eroding the outside the way that it is would allow access to erode the eye wall away. This  would basically create an access to the inner core of the system. This of course would start to weaken the system.

So lets see what could be responsible for this starting to occur.

Folks there is literally a wall of shear which it is approaching and approaching on the system. Shear that goes from 20 knots all the way up to 50 knots. So basically with heading into this environment and the western CDO eroding it basically is all downhill from this point on. This weakening means he is now starting to feel the shear and the effects of the trough and he should start to move more to the NNW and then N and NNE from there.

So, even though Earl re-strengthened to a CAT 4…it seems like the potential for a CAT 5 is basically over with ..as he has reached his peak which was a CAT 4 which was what Real Wx Services has been saying its peak would be.

So with all the above I expect this to continue weakening thru out the overnight hours. This was what i posted about in my last update and its happening pretty much as expected.

At this point and time am not going to change anything with the track of the system as i still feel that this track should verify in the end with landfall around Nova Scotia. This is subject to change depending on guidance at 12 Z and beyond but more importantly nowcasting observations.

One final thought is that this system is still some distance from the east coast.

Coverage will continue for two more hours and then a brief respite for sleep and then resumes at 12 noon to about 6 PM..