Satellite shows that convection is increasing in association with 96 L and as of 6 Z pressure is back down a notch to 1003 mbs. However, the problem is that 96 L is very large and broad and the majority of the convection is well east of where the center of the invest is located. At the present time that is also where the best convergence and divergence is located with this system.
As one can plainly see the vorticity is still really stretched out and elongated. Larger systems take longer time to spin up and develop and that is why development has been rather slow with this system.
Its quite possible that this could be a Tropical Depression as of 6 Z but with such a large circulation and its getting closer to land…I am not sure how much time there would remain to become anything more then a tropical depression.
Not to mention that as this makes its way towards FL it is more then likely going to start taking on either extra tropical features of sub tropical features..So at this point its really difficult and could go either way as far as how NHC wants to officially handle this.
The above is the 00z ECM at 48 hours and you can pretty much see that this is a sheared looking broad system which is also taking on extratropical or subtropical characteristics..
So, it would not surprise me to see this become a depression about 30 minutes from now…However..how long it stays purely warm core tropical will determine on whether it gets named and how long it takes to spin up and what effect land has on it as well..These are things we will be watching thru the next 24 hrs..
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