NHC Now Confirms What R.W.S Has Been Saying!

National Hurricane Center which has been consistently pronouncing that the remnants of GASTON had a high chance of developing..as high as 80% have now come to the conclusion that there is only a low chance on development. They have taken the chances from 80% at one point and time down to 50% and finally as of 2 AM they have taken it down to 20%.

Here at Real Wx Services we have been talking about that there was a better chance of this dissipating then actually redeveloping. We provided the reasons why along the way. We also mentioned how the ECM never really developed this system.

So lets look at the problems that continue to plague this system. However before we do lets look at some images from 4:45 UTC.

As both these images show there really is not that much convection associated with FTS Gaston. Thru the past couple days it was able to build convection but it was never able to sustain it and there is alot of questions going around the net as to why with the warm SSTS and lower shear has this not been able to redevelop?

Its a fair question , however, this is why it is so vitally important to always watch and observe the environment around the system.

GASTON is a perfect example why when a system is at high chance of development, even with warm SSTS, and model support-the environment really becomes more important then the SSTS and models.

The problem that GASTON has had essentially since day 1 is dry air. This you recall is something that normally is not associated with a La Nina and Real Wx Services was told repeatedly that this dry air would go away and not be a problem because it was going to be a LA NINA summer. Real Wx Services position has always been that even though its a LA NINA that the atmosphere has lag times and can still have lingering effects of the previous ENSO..

Here is a look at the dry air that is currently around the invest formerly known as GASTON..

This is the reason that this system has not been able to develop but to really get a true perspective of the problem with dry air..

Dry air is basically controlling from the Eastern Caribbean into and across the Atlantic and then there is continental dry air that is once again getting ready to move of the east coast.

So with the dry air that is in place it is really going to be quite difficult to really get any storms developing  out across the Atlantic.

So, the story with Gaston is that if he is going to redevelop it would end up being over the Caribbean (western ) or the Gulf of Mexico if he were to survive across the islands. Otherwise, the chances for redevelopment continue to be low with dissipation the greater chance!