The latest images above are from what was Tropical Depression Ten which is as of 5 AM going to be upgraded to Hermine. Strong convection to the east of the center with good divergence and convergence has allowed this to become Hermine which should be set to 35 KTS and 1002 Mbs. Of course this is the opinion of R.W.S but feel strongly that NHC will confirm this..
Shear is between 10-20 knots which is not detrimental to the development but should keep this from getting to much stronger.
Two potential problems is that this does not have that much time that it will be over water. Its a potential problem as far as any that would be expecting this to become a hurricane like some of the models are suggesting. The 2nd potential problem is the dry air that is sinking SE from up north..
At this point and time I am thinking due to the short time over the water..relatively marginal shear..and approaching dry air that we will only stay at Tropical Storm level ..Landfall should be near Tampico and it should be sometime monday night or weather time 00z Tuesday to 06 Z tuesday.
Latest IR Loop & WV Loop
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