Pressure had dropped 2 mbs since the last update that was issued but the wind speed has remained the same at 150 MPH as a 130 KT storm. It appears at least for now that IGOR has reached its peak intensity.
Couple of observations..the center on east is under only 5-10 knots of shear and this is allowing the storm to maintain its intensity. However, the western side (west of the center) is under 10-20 knots of shear and the shear is increasing on that side. There is also a small area increasing to its west..
The other thing to take notice to is the increase in size of the system in general. It is actually expanding and getting larger.
At the present moment the system is travelling on a due west movement and this is slightly south of what the National Hurricane Center has as its central track. Due to this there is some thinking that the models are incorrect and that this could not only effect the islands off to the west but it could also mean an East Coast effect.
The marker that I basically am laying down for IGOR is if he makes it to 61 W below 22 N ..then the chances will increase for a effect on the East Coast..
As it stands right now it still appears to safely recurve from the islands and not effect the east coast..
However..with that said..residents in the islands west of IGOR continue to monitor the situation and most importantly residents of Bermuda follow this system carefully…
There is a potential that IGOR could pass near or over Bermuda.
Stay tuned for further updates.
No comments:
Post a Comment