Wednesday, September 22, 2010

95 L To Be Or Not To Be Remains The Question!

vis-l

wv-l

The question that continues is whether or not 95 L develops and whether or not this becomes a East Coast threat or if this becomes a Mexico threat instead.

shear

Right now it is rather in close proximity to land and the shear around the system is about 20 knots from the south.

convergediver

There is convergence and divergence, however the best lies further to the north of they system and the vorticity is still rather stretched and elongated.

vorticity

Here is a IR Loop and WV loop

AOI3_ir_loop

AOI3_wv_loop

Latest 12 Z models such this goes south of the YUCATAN and even some are emerging this over the waters south of the channel.

post-4607-055739100 1285180137

Latest ECM does not develop that strong of a system

12zeurotropical500mbSLP168

12zeurotropical500mbSLP192

So as the modeling continues to fluctuate with the track and even the strength the question still remains the same..will 95 L develop into anything other then an invest or will the speed the system is moving take this south of YUCATAN and then dissipate? Too early too know the exact answer for certain but stay tuned!

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