Latest image of TD # 16 above and it continues to be disorganized and the center of circulation looks to be exposed as the convection is well to the SE of the system.
Vorticity from the last update has become even more broad and large then what it was previously.
Convergence and divergence are both lacking as the greatest area is to the E and then greater area further to the NE off the SE Coast.
Shear has increased slightly to around 10 knots but on the edge of 10-20 knots and greater shear exists in its pathway..
Readers I want you to be aware that this is the only place that has been warning from the beginning about the statements of Nicole being premature because it was not a certainty that this was going to develop into Nicole. This is the only place that you will find that has not hyped the system and has not talked about a superstorm etc .
At this present time..it appears that time is running out on this as far as being able to intensify enough to get named. Unless a new center were to relocate and develop right under neath the convection that is well to the SE.
Models were never really showing this to be much more then a large strung out sheared system..except for the GFS in its long range. There continues to be a reason why you should not take the models beyond 120 hrs.
Make no mistake about it that this has more of a chance to intensify once it is off the SE coast..but by this time it will no longer be tropical and quite possibly no longer be the energy that we are tracking now but a new low pressure area that moves up the coast.
No comments:
Post a Comment