Tropical storm Hermine was confirmed by the National Hurricane Center early this morning at 5 AM as Real Wx Services pointed this out at 3 AM as a Tropical Storm.
The above are latest images of Tropical Storm Hermine. Conditions are generally favorable with warm SSTS and low shear at least over the COC for slow intensification.
Shear appears to be 5-10 knots over where the center of circulation is and the system appears to be heading in a NNW direction.
Every available loop seems to support a general NNW movement with this system.
Due to the systems location being relatively close to land..and not having that much time remaining over the open water..I would put the chances of this becoming anything more then a minimal Cat 1 hurricane at less then 5%. There is just not much time available for anything greater to occur.
Its also quite possible that this system just stays a strong tropical storm due to its location being so close to land. Never the less it will bring heavy rain fall into TX and Mx.
Latest thinking is landfall should be just south of Brownsville Tx…
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