These are the latest images of what use to be Gaston. As one can tell by looking at the images ..this is nowhere near as organized as it was two days ago and convection is rather scarce and hard pressed to find.
The pressure of the system is at 1009 mbs and at 25 KTS. With less convection and such disorganization this no longer can be considered a tropical depression.
As mentioned last night the ECM did not really develop this system and as of tonight it still does not really develop this system . Matter of fact the ECM looks basically quiet in the tropics thru at least the next 7 days.
So lets look at the reasons why what was gaston is having a hard time recovering.
#1 reason is the system is surrounded by dry air. Whenever you have a developing system surrounded by dry air it can work its way into the center of circulation and cause the system to slow down in developing or not develop as well.
#2 10-20 knots of shear are across the system. Not detrimental to development but yet another factor that can cause or hinder development.
Convergence and divergence. As you see the convergence is rather decent but the best divergence lies to its west.
Vorticity is rather stretched out and elongated.
All these factors are actually hindering development of this system and it appears now that the chances of dissipation are at about 60 %. If this system can shake the shear, dry air and tighten up its vorticity then it would have a chance at developing. However, right now…the cards are rather stacked against the system and just waiting to see how they are going to get played out!
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