Mentioned earlier yesterday at about 1 PM how we felt that IGOR was at least a CAT 3 and a Major Hurricane at that point and time and that by tonight at the latest that he would be CAT 4 hurricane. Well, a little off on the CAT as he became a CAT 4 as of 2 PM..but the call of a major Hurricane at that time was indeed correct and so was obtaining CAT 4 status. A low shear environment has allowed IGOR to undergo Rapid Intensification. This was mentioned as one of the things that had to change in order to no longer develop slowly. Once this shear had weakened this gave the go ahead signal and allowed IGOR to intensify the way he has.
So the question becomes…what about the tracking of this system? This system is huge, no doubt and the question on alot of peoples minds is ..what effect is this going to have on the east coast?
As the image above shows there are only two models that do not curve this system and actually look like they would head towards the east coast. These two models IMO would be considered the outliers because all the rest of the models clearly show this recurving.
Matter of fact the models show this actually recurving enough that it would not really even have any type of major effects on the islands to the west..
So over the next 5 days it appears as though IGOR should head west and then west NW and then NW . Will not take this beyond 5 days at this point and time..
Also appears as though for now the intensity has peaked at 130 KTS or 150 MPH and pressure of 935 MBS…
Stay tuned for more updates thru out the rest of the night and day and night ahead..
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