Currently 95 L is not looking all that impressive. Convection had pretty much died off ..however..some is starting to refire currently.
Shear is relatively light around 10 knots ..convergence is there but kind of weak and divergence is actually off to its NW or towards its SW.
The vorticity is really stretched out and elongated..
This is essentially a sign that if this is going to develop its going to take quite some time because this is generally a large tropical wave and kind of involved with a monsoonal type trough. The larger a system is the longer it takes to tighten up and form a center of circulation.
Models continue to change with there tracks which is atypical for the models to do when there is no COC. Until that point and time ..they will continue to try and plot what will happen but will not become more accurate until the COC develops.
Tonights 00z ECM takes a very weak Tropical Storm across FL and then up the coast where it sort of splits off into two areas of low pressure.
However, the 00z GFS has a different picture not necessarily in regards to track….
But in it showing a much stronger system. However, it should be noted that the GFS shows this going over CUBA (much like the ECM) but the GFS has it strengthening as it goes across Cuba. I have to question that because CUBA is known to kill or hamper Tropical Cyclones. So, if a track like this were to occur..I think the weaker version of the ECM would be the more accurate one..
However..before any of the above solutions can come true ..the system has to develop.
Folks its pretty simple..
No one should be talking about a massive system or the potential for a massive system developing or hitting the east coast because as of right now ..
A. The system is not that impressive
B. The system is only at the present time a tropical wave..hence not a depression or storm etc…
Will be following this and what happens with lisa over the next 48 plus hours!
No comments:
Post a Comment