Monday, September 27, 2010

Invest 96 L-Latest Look & Conditions!

20100927.1945.goes-13.ircolor.96L.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.18.4N.88W.100pc

AOI1_ir_loop

As of 00z shear has actually increased across the area of 96 L compared to earlier.

shear

While there is  now present a little convergence the best actually is now to the SW of 96 L and the divergence is still lacking across the invest.

convergediverge

Vorticity still remains rather stretched out and broad..

vort

Storm-96-Spaghetti

Latest models generally show this moving in a NE fashion and moving across Cuba and then heading into the FL straits and NE up along the coast or inland.

There are a couple that are further out over the ocean.

www.ssd.noaa.gov 2010-9-27 23-15

The question is whether this is going to be a tropical storm or subtropical storm? Notice how there is a cold front approaching the area . This cold front is not that far off from where 96 L is. Could this cold front manage to pick up Invest 96? If so the interaction with that cold front would keep this from becoming a purely tropical system and instead what you would have moving across florida and up the eastern seaboard would be a hybrid system.

At the present time am leaning 50% a hybrid system and we will continue to monitor the situation.

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