This is a little bit of a rant because of things I have been reading on the internet in forums across the net. People are discussing Nicole, Otto, Paula and even Richard. 
The above image is showing two areas that are highlighted and one is at 30 % and the other is at 10%. That means at the present time there is a 70% chance that the first one will not develop and a 90 % that the 2nd one will not develop at least over the next 48 hrs.
As you can see there is no storms called Nicole and Otto or Paula and Richard..Matter of fact there are only two areas highlighted with potential which means at the most if they were to develop and be named they would become Nicole and Otto.
However, people are talking about these systems as if they already exist just because a particular model shows it happening.
Lets take a moment to discuss the system that potentially looks to move across or near Florida. For the longest time the talk around the internet was that this was going to be Matthew. However, we here at R.W.S made the public aware that this “potential” system was not going to be Matthew because Matthew was going to dissipate over Central America..and that is exactly what happened.
So then the talk moved from Matthew to Nicole because a particular model or models were showing in the medium to long range this system developing and showing it as a large formidable storm. However, as we STRESS again and again these are just the model depictions based on mathematical formulas and data imputted into the model and what the model thinks is going to happen. And that one should never trust the details of a storm being shown 8-10 days out. So, now the models are showing what could be potential Nicole as a large formidable system…”the mega storm” “the super storm” –“the east coast is doomed storm” ..
Yes folks this stuff is real that is in quotes above…
So now as we get closer to the time period where the models are getting in the med to short range we are seeing a large strung out sheared system that splits off into a couple area of low pressure..
00z GFS tonight
Or you could look at the ECM which shows the same type of scenario but probably even more strung out after 48 hrs
So, as we been saying here at R.W.S since the beginning that this is going to be a large system because its coming out of a monsoonal trough which means its a broad area of low pressure and the larger a system is the more difficult it is to tighten up and spin ..and this is not even calculating into the equation the effect of a ULL which will be over the SE and the potential of a cold front moving into the GOM area and Fl. So just because a model shows a super type mega type storm is not a GUARANTEE that it is going to happen and 9 out of 10 if its in the long range it is going to change in details by the time it gets into the short to medium range.
So , now this system is not going to be that super system..so now the talk has shifted to OTTO..Why?
Because once again a model shows a strong system developing..
00z GFS
00z GGEM says wait a second..I think the system is on the East side of FL
00Z ECM says…hey guys what system are you spinning up that I am not spinning up?
The moral of the story is that there are three different models..the only three that go out far enough ..and each model says something different ..which means the overall reality of the situation is that there is nothing guaranteeing that this system at 240 hrs is going to even develop..
It does say that there could be potential for it to develop but until there is a depression in place…it is all mere speculation and there should not be any talking about superstorms etc because in the end its going to change.
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