Where is Winter?

This is the question that is on the minds of every weather hobbyist, every Pro Weather forecaster & every individual who has an interest in weather.

We are going to attempt to answer this question and hopefully by the time we are finished …we will have a clearer picture of what has been happening and where we are heading.

Before we do this though lets look at where we have been..

With looking at the above images you can see exactly WHY the winter weather lovers and pro mets are asking the question..Where is winter? November was warm and December was warmer yet!

What has been the cause of this happening? There are several reasons and we are going to take a look at them now:

First lets look at the Madden Julian Oscillation.

This clearly shows that we are in Octant 5 or phase 5 of the MJO and the resultant look at 500 mb level in that phase is as follows:

As you can see this leads to higher heights across the region which results in warmer weather.

Lets look at the AO and the NAO in the current observations..

Both the Artic Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation have been very positive. Matter of fact the AO has only dropped to neutral territories for a 2-3 day time span since Mid November. Usually the time span for a weather pattern to last before it breaks is 45-60 days. So if you figure this started in Mid November then 60 days would come around Mid January..

Now..before we get into some evidence pointing to this pattern change we want to talk about the upcoming short term time frame..

Now as you can see despite having a very positive AO and a very positive NAO the models above ..ECM & GFS are showing a full  trough with a cold front blasting thru the region with the first true arctic air into the east. European computer model at this time frame and thru 144 hrs. are showing temperatures in the teens- 20’s for highs and lows subzero to teens depending where you reside.

Folks this is some serious cold air. With North Northwest winds this will make the air even colder yet…

Now you also notice that there is a low pretty far off the east coast at 120 hours as well. We have been monitoring this time frame for some time and we still are not 100% convinced the models have this resolved yet. Could this low end up closer to the coast?

The answer to that really depends on whether or not the cold front blasts thru the area and ends up setting the axis of the trough to far to the east. Right now that is what the models are suggesting..However..we are taking the more cautious approach which is thinking that there is still the potential on the table.

First..we have never seen amplification as great as what is being modeled without something happening..and the models are hinting that something could happen but off the coast..but this is what we find interesting..

You can see that the two main models further up the GFS & ECM are as progressive as the most biased progressive model. Generally when we see something like this it factors as a red flag.

Another thing that we want to point out is the AO..which is the reason for the cold air showing up on the guidance ..

Now what we notice here is the extremely positive AO at +4.5 falling during that time frame to – 1.5-2.0. Generally when you see a decline in a teleconnection such as the AO & NAO ..this can indicate a potential storm along the east coast. So ..factoring that into the equation along with the amplification being shown we think that right now it more or less is riding on the timing of the shortwave that will be riding over the top of the ridge. This period needs to be monitored closely.

Now…lets get back to the pattern change around mid month with the 60 days running out. Do we see anything that hints to this occurring ?

As you can see the GFS is for the first time that we have noticed indicating a Negative AO & positive PNA along with a negative NAO in its long range at or towards the period we are anticipating.

The ensembles of the GFS do not quite get the NAO negative ..they do keep it positive but the AO is more negative on the ensembles..

So the signs are there indicating a pattern change is just around the corner. We think by the 22nd of the month of January we will be looking at the pattern change in complete transition to a colder pattern with potential storms resulting in Winter Weather!

Stay tuned as we follow this pattern change along with the possible potential in the next 5 days!