Severe Weather April 11th 2013

We are going to stand in complete contrast to SPC with the Day 2 outlook they has issued yesterday afternoon at 17:30.

As you can see from the current radar you can almost pick out exactly where the cold front is . As all the heavy rain with some garden variety or non severe storms are along the front. 
You can also see this on the surface map as of 11 PM

For the rest of tonight ..there should be heavy rain with nothing more then isolated severe as this batch of rain and the cold front makes its way to the east. It will be crossing western portions of TN and KY between 8 AM and 2 PM in the afternoon. 

And in those areas rain will clear out between 2 PM and 8 PM. 

Nothing is to impressed tonight with severe weather for Thursday. We have the SREF significant severe which looks like this..

Notice how you are missing the dark red other then in the GOM? This is not an impressive map. 

The NAM severe parameters ..CAPE 

The greatest CAPE is over the Southeast and this is at 5 PM right around the peak of daytime heating.

There is also sufficient lift in the atmosphere... 

Helicity is greatest across the Northern Tier ..However ..EHI is only isolated locations of at or above 1..

The greatest parameter in favor of severe would be the shear and this is located over the southern sections..

As the triggers we have a semi quasi stationary front across the northern tier with an impulse or low pressure area traveling across it and across the south we have a cold front that will be making its way towards the east.
With the EHI not very impressive we are not seeing this as a tornado day..perhaps an isolated one here and there but nothing substantial. The main threats will be gusty winds with the front and hail with any of the severe storms..and of course heavy rains.
We are not going with a red zone because of the over all parameters not being impressive enough to warrant a red zone. Greatest potential lies over the Southeast region for the greatest chances of severe weather!