Brief Pattern Update - Pattern Change in the Making?

Its been awhile since we have updated this blog. We have been doing the majority of the updating on the facebook page for Real Wx Services. 
If one were to look at Climate Prediction Center it would appear as if a pattern change is on the way.

Definitely shows a much below normal pattern in the 6-10 day outlook. Do the teleconnections support this happening? Well...lets look at them... 
First the MJO which is in the circle of death...

This basically implies it has little bearing on the weather outcome and it could go either way with warmer then normal or colder then normal dependent on the other teleconnections.

Now what we did with these teleconnections is we drew two circles on each one. One is black which represents where the teleconnection is NOW...or Presently. The other is yellow which represents where we could be headed..

The PNA is negative presently but is shown to spike positive but then shown to dip right back down negative once again. This would indicate a period of ridging into the west which would teleconnect to a trough into the east...

And lo and behold we see this is the case starting at 144 hrs out or next weekend. Trough in the east and ridging into the west.
Now lets look at the AO ...

Presently the AO is very high but it is shown to be on the decline and then some members take it negative while other members keep it positive. This is important for sustained cold you want to see the AO negative and stay negative in tandem with that positive PNA...

Finally the NAO is currently very positive as well but like the AO is expected to decline and then the members are once again split with some going and staying negative but some staying positive. So this gives us mixed signals ...

What is clear is that there will be a shot of cold air next weekend....thanks to the PNA spike.. Lets what the progression here of this...

Troughing still in place at 168 hrs out on the ECM tonight...

At 192 hrs we have a reinforcing trough moving in as the other one moves on out.. Still pretty progressive flow that we are experiencing....
But then what happens... 

Progressive flow begins to move that trough out and we see at day 10 ....

Things are pretty much starting to moderate and the flow has become zonal and pacific driven once again. 
So we do get a cold shot that will be coming in by Next weekend but there after with the teleconnections giving mixed signals but the drop back down in the PNA indicates that we are not going into a sustained cold pattern but rather a couple days of colder weather during that PNA spike.
The severity of that cold shot will be dependent on just how the AO reacts... does it go strongly negative or does it stay positive BUT declined? We think the latter .
Remember in order to get locked in sustained cold weather you want to see a sustained positive PNA and a negative AO and a negative NAO.... We are not seeing that we are only seeing a temporary spike in the PNA before once again declining and bringing some semblence of the Southeast ridge and zonal flow back into play...
So right now we are cautiously optimistic on a pattern change. We really would like to see the teleconnections switch to the more favorable combination before we can jump on "a pattern change is happening"...

Note the GFS has a cold bias when it comes to beyond 180 hrs so ...we have not included that in this discussion.