March 2nd-4th Potential Southern Snow Event

I have broke this down into two different color scenarios. The lighter blue is light snowfall that will be caused by the midlevel center crossing thru the region. This is [b]not[/b] from the coastal but rather the energy that will be coming thru that does not phase with the system until it would be too late. So, those that are reading this do not confuse it with the actual coastal low.
The other shade of blue is from the coastal low itself that will make its way to Hatteras and then slide ENE from there which will probably effect eastern LI and Cape Cod...

Again..this is an early scenario map but confidence is pretty high in these scenarios happening and the way they go about happening and occurring..

Notice

This does not mean i believe that the coastal is coming far enough north to effect the region. I will continue to monitor the situation and see if that changes...

Reason Why Early March System Does Not Come North!

This system circled in yellow is actually starting to become a third system . This system is modeled on the GFS/ECM/ GGEM.... Both the GFS/ECM are very close to blowing this system into a major blizzard for New England.. The GGEM also does the same thing but it moves it out a tad faster then the rest of the guidance. This third system as shown above is basically a system that retrogrades much like this one that just happened.

This system causes lower heights along the east coast and does not allow enough separation between the next S/W...

So for those wanting this to come further north..That system up above needs to head out of dodge faster which would allow the heights to raise along the east coast. Without that happening this then does not have the space needed and will end up going off the cape Hatteras and ENE out to sea...

Need To Make Something Clear!

As most people know who follow this blog.. Real Wx Services will never issue a forecast unless it has model support. By model support that means that it must have consensus with the models in happening. If there is not consensus on the models between operational and or ensembles then Real Wx Services will not forecast a storm to happen across a region. It must be supported by guidance if not it is wishcasting! That is something we do not tolerate! The reason i created R.W.S in the first place. 

For example..today the 12 Z GFS showed a system effecting the NE with a snow event. However..its own ensembles did not agree and neither did any of the other major global models. Real Wx Services will never issue a forecast based on one model and one run. That is called Modelology and not Meteorology! 

Real Wx Services serves a public audience and feels responsible to put across the most accurate information provided by guidance and teleconnections at the current time in question! 

We will not change the way we forecast because that is what makes us different! 

Level 3 Alert Continues For Feb 25th -28th

Level 3 Alert has been issued for MD/PA/NJ/NYC/LI into the NE with the exception of Cape Cod. Level 3 means a Winter Storm is taking aim on the region and looks to potentially drop a significant amount of snow/sleet or ZR across the region.

Low pressure will develop off the SE tomorrow and will begin to move slowly up the eastern seaboard passing off the Delmarva before moving NW towards NYC . This low pressure as it moves slowly along the eastern seaboard will undergo rapid intensification and be in the 979-982 MB range. This low pressure looks to stall across the area and actually retrograde. Due to the rapid intensification of this low pressure and its strengths winds will also be increasing and wind gusts over 45 mph will not be out of the question. This will cause blowing and drifting of the snow and create Blizzard Conditions during the day on thursday.

This storm has the potential to drop between 1-2 feet of snow across a good portion of the area . At this point and time these numbers may be a little conservative in some areas.  

Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate quite rapidly during the day on thursday and Real Weather Services recommends that you do not travel unless you absolutely have to.


Stay tuned to further updates on this developing situation!

Level 3 in Effect (RYAN)

My First Call for the storm coming up! Blizzard conditions up and down I-95.

Level 3 Alert Starting Feb 24th PM

Level 3 Alert has been issued for MD/PA/NJ/NYC/LI into the NE with the exception of Cape Cod.  Level 3 means a Winter Storm is taking aim on the region and looks to potentially drop a significant amount of snow/sleet or ZR across the region. 

Low pressure will develop off the SE tomorrow and will begin to move slowly up the eastern seaboard passing off the Delmarva before moving NW towards NYC . This low pressure as it moves slowly along the eastern seaboard will undergo rapid intensification and be in the 979-982 MB range. This low pressure looks to stall across the area and actually retrograde. Due to the rapid intensification of this low pressure and its strengths winds will also be increasing and wind gusts over 45 mph will not be out of the question. This will cause blowing and drifting of the snow and create Blizzard Conditions during the day on thursday. 

This storm has the potential to drop between 1-2 feet of snow across a good portion of the area and 6-12 elsewhere. 

Travel conditions are expected to deteriorate quite rapidly during the day on thursday and Real Weather Services recommends that you do not travel unless you absolutely have to.

This storm could very easily turn into a blizzard for alot of regions and rate pretty high in the Nesis rating scale! 

Stay tuned to further updates on this developing situation!

Preliminary Scenario for Part 2 Starting the 25th

Now..the one area that I am not sure on yet is the rain area and the mix area paralleling the rain area. But just to give a general perspective of where my thoughts are leaning out this point and time this is what i am seeing.. This would be based on the NAM/GFS/ECM/FIM and the GFS/NAM for thermal profile...