Winter 2008-09 Released..

The Winter 2008-09 Forecast Has been released. I released this earlier on the Accu Weather forums.
Compared to last year..this winter is going to feel like a "normal" winter. Last year, winter was warmer then normal due to a strong la nina. Snowfall was quite limited until you got into the Northeast where you had above normal snowfall.
This winter should be different. Historically speaking, whenever a strong La Nina occurs..The following winter is more then likely preceded by either a Neutral Enso or a weak La Nina.
Currently we are in a Neutral enso state..and this enso state is expected to continue thru fall by the meteorological experts. However, I expect a weak la nina to occur likely by 2009. The enso state is always constantly fluctuating so this aspect of the forecast may indeed be revised.
Now, the winter of 1996 was a weak la nina. By saying that, I am not implying that this winter will be like 1996. However, it will be colder and it will be snowier.
Another aspect that I like to look at is the pattern that we have in the summer time. Summer of 2008 ended up with one significant heat wave in early June. Other then that temperatures were seasonable until we got to August, where they were well below normal in the Mid Atlantic and the Northeast. September we seen the pattern relax..but has it really changed? IMO, it has not changed , but rather relaxed.
So going into the fall and then winter months..I am expecting the NAO to remain negative, though it will relax at times, and the PNA to remain positive ..though this too will relax at times. The AO will be negative as well but will go thru reloading patterns. These reloading patterns will result in temperatures being seasonable to at times slightly above..overall departures at those times would be seasonable.
Due to the AO being negative that is going to allow the northern Jet Stream to be quite active this winter resulting in what I will refer to as a "clipper parade" With unusually mild waters off the eastern seaboard this will enable any clippers to potentially lay down more snowfall then a normal clipper would.
Also with the likelyhood of heading into a weak la nina as well..I expect the southern Jet Stream to be quite active which will help keep the east coast more wet as well. Our biggest storms come from the southern Jet stream out of the GOM.
Temperatures should average about 2-5 degrees below normal until we reach the months of February and March...
One thing to keep an eye out on will be just how much influence the waters off the atlantic have on the immediate east coast. This could be the fly in the forecast..where temperatures along the coast could end up being more seasonal instead of below normal. The answer to that question will be answered as we see how much influence the Hurricane season has on the waters off the eastern seaboard. The more storms that come of the coast , the more upswelling will occur and those temperatures will drop off. So that remains to be seen.
Well there you have it. My official forecast and discussion for the winter of 2008-2009