Storm: December 31/Jan 1-Jan 4
Type of Storm: Winter Storm
Format: S/W (1/2)
Scenario: As a S/W developing in the GOM heads NE/NNE into the SE US, it is spreading moisture currently in the form of rain up through the Miss. Valley. This storm will continue on its trek NE delivering Wintry Precipitation into the MA/NE areas. There has been the idea floating around that this is a two wave system. That is correct. The first wave will be the one responsible for most of the accumulations south of NY state. The second wave on the other hand, will track up the EC after coming off of the NC coast and head into Nova Scotia spreading precip into the NNE. After that, there is a likelihood that it will retrograde into the Gulf of Maine spreadin an extended period of SHSN through the NNE/parts of the SNE as well.
Models: Models have been all over the place in the past few days, so the format of forecasting I used for the discussion and analysis is a Nowcast. It seems to be the best way to go. Precip that has developed over the SE which was originally progged to track a bit more to the SE will impact areas in the Mid-Atlantic. This will not be much of a significant storm south of the CONN/RI Area, or for anyone south of NY state.
Areas Affected: MD/DE/PA/NJ/NY/VT/NH/CT/RI/MA/ME
Possible Room for Error: I along with the other members of RWS are watching a potential change in track since this storm was never perfectly depicted on the models. I will update if I see anything suspicious in the radar, steering currents, or water vapor imageries as storms can sometimes deliver surprises.
Headlines: Matt issued a RWS WWA for some areas earlier today.
Maps: I have the overall forecast map and individual state maps for MD/PA.
Timeline (for start of precip): Washington DC/Baltimore: 3-4 AM Philadelphia: 7AM NYC: 11AM
Boston: Friday Morning(S/W #2)
Hello, I am Ryan and I am a new member of the RWS solutions team from Dundalk, MD. I love the site and am honoreed to be a part of something great.
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