Update (RYAN) NNE Blizzard.

Hello all, it is Ryan with an update on the situation involving the NNE/Upstate NY event. My map verified well for all S of New York State for the event, and now it is time to see if the upper piece will come to fruition. There has been some snow in the totals already in info from the NWS and from watching radar imagery.

It is now time for the snow to affect Upstate NY in terms of Lake Effect, and the NNE namely Maine in a huge coastal event. The storm looks to really intensify up near Nova Scotia and then proceed to retrograde down into the Gulf of Maine. The accumulations on my final call look to hold up in this storm. Here are some images from the 00z NAM run tonight:

18hr- The storm takes aim at Nova Scotia first dumping very heavy snows there.

24hr-The storm reaches the mid 960's mb and is very intense near Nova Scotia, with the retrograde about to begin.
30hr-Nice retrograding here into the GOM as the low is very intense, although losing strength overall. The double barrel nature of the low completely takes the 850's under freezing all the way into the Atlantic.
36hr-Light-Moderate snows fall on the NNE/SNE as well as back up into NS. At this point the storm is winding down, and losing its QPF intensity. LES are well underway at this point in time for Upstate NY and even some for NE Ohio/NW PA/W MD/WV.

42 hr- The storm like hour 36 is dropping the light-moderate snows on the NNE/SNE with it winding down. The low is located off of the Northern Massachusetts coast at this point.
48 hr- The storm is moving out, leaving its last pieces of precip in the NE US and Canada as well.
60 hr QPF below shows the amount of precip falling the the NNE as well as upsate NY from the LES and the Blizzard/Winter Storm that will hit the NNE.
An analysis of what should occur in the state of Maine. There will be a major risk of coastal flooding in the state from the 60-70mph winds from my predicted 965mb low that will retrograde into the GOM. The erosion and effect on Maine's wonderful beaches could be devastating.
The accumulations listed in the image dont exactly match my call for NW Maine, 6-12'' was my call. I'm not really changing it, but 9-15'' is quite likely after viewing the QPF graphics.

All else that was forecasted sticks to my map created Wednesday Night(Really everything does):

If anything changes, I will update. The storm is really going according to plans.

Final Call (Dec. 31/Jan. 1-4) RYAN

Ryan: RWS Team Member

Storm: December 31/Jan 1-Jan 4

Type of Storm: Winter Storm

Format: S/W (1/2)

Scenario: As a S/W developing in the GOM heads NE/NNE into the SE US, it is spreading moisture currently in the form of rain up through the Miss. Valley. This storm will continue on its trek NE delivering Wintry Precipitation into the MA/NE areas. There has been the idea floating around that this is a two wave system. That is correct. The first wave will be the one responsible for most of the accumulations south of NY state. The second wave on the other hand, will track up the EC after coming off of the NC coast and head into Nova Scotia spreading precip into the NNE. After that, there is a likelihood that it will retrograde into the Gulf of Maine spreadin an extended period of SHSN through the NNE/parts of the SNE as well.

Models: Models have been all over the place in the past few days, so the format of forecasting I used for the discussion and analysis is a Nowcast. It seems to be the best way to go. Precip that has developed over the SE which was originally progged to track a bit more to the SE will impact areas in the Mid-Atlantic. This will not be much of a significant storm south of the CONN/RI Area, or for anyone south of NY state.

Areas Affected: MD/DE/PA/NJ/NY/VT/NH/CT/RI/MA/ME

Possible Room for Error: I along with the other members of RWS are watching a potential change in track since this storm was never perfectly depicted on the models. I will update if I see anything suspicious in the radar, steering currents, or water vapor imageries as storms can sometimes deliver surprises.

Headlines: Matt issued a RWS WWA for some areas earlier today.

Maps: I have the overall forecast map and individual state maps for MD/PA.


Timeline (for start of precip):

Washington DC/Baltimore: 3-4 AM Philadelphia: 7AM NYC: 11AM

Boston: Friday Morning(S/W #2)

Hello, I am Ryan and I am a new member of the RWS solutions team from Dundalk, MD. I love the site and am honoreed to be a part of something great.