Invest 91 L ... Tropical Outlook

There  is not much doubt in our mind that Invest 91 L is going to develop. However, there is also not much doubt in our mind that this system will have no impact on the USA. 
Essentially this would be due to Tropical Storm Leslie and also Hurricane Michael which have both beaten down the subtropical ridge.  In other words both Leslie and Michael have created a large weakness with in the ridge...
While the steering currents suggest for 91 L to continue moving off to the west north west..once it comes to that weakness it should start to make a northerly turn.. You can see that weakness by looking at the steering currents..

At the present time there are only two factors which could hinder development . First one is the dry air ... and then the second one is increasing shear ..even though at present shear is only 5-10 knots ...

Presently there is decent convergence and divergence across the system...

We think the odds are pretty likely that this will become a tropical depression within the next 24-36 hours and probably a tropical storm (Nadine) by about friday... 

Pretty much this is the track that we are expecting for 91 L to take .. 

Quick look at the guidance with the GFS at 144 hrs 

ECM a little less enthusiastic about development then the GFS..

GGEM is more in line with the GFS ..

So in summary we feel the environment outside of some dry air , which does not seem to be effecting the system right now ..and some increase in shear..is marginally conducive for development and we should see a tropical depression form in the next 24-46 hrs. There after we think this will become NADINE but because of the weakness in the ridge this will recurve out and stay in the Atlantic with no threat to land...
We will update this in 24 hours from this Update...