Leslie In No Hurry! Who Will Feel Her Fury?

We are going to start this off with our first call map for leslie. Leslie is located around 24.5 N and 62.5 west. We are essentially looking at Leslie to have a more of a left shift in her tracking with a NW steering then turning due north but stalling or slowing down considerable with due north movement this will take the center somewhat close to Cape Cod Region. And then we think from there we will begin to turn NNE or NE and Nova Scotia at this present time looks to be the area  where possibly the greatest impacts will be felt. 
It should be noted that between the hours of 48-72 hrs when the mid level ridging is expected to build towards the west that if this ridge is stronger then a more western track would be on the table. We are not leaning heavily on the GFS because it was doing the same thing with Isaac and was not strong enough with the ridging.

So lets look what is going on with this system.

 The image above that you are looking at is showing you where ADT is placing the systems center of circulation is located. And as you can tell it is located on the western side of the convection and not in the middle..

The above three images are the visible, wide view of the Atlantic and then a closer view of the atlantic . As you can see there is still some dry air that is effecting this system ..however we should be about 24 hours before we start to see some more intensification taking place..

Another continued problem for Leslie has been the shear that she has been having to persist with .This really poses a problem at least in the short term for intensification and we really do not see much strengthening for at least the next 24hours.
The other problem continues to be that the system is still NOT vertically stacked..

As these three images above surely do. 
So in summary:
A. Strong shear still effecting the system
B. Dry air still in place and being ejected.
C. With the stationary movement I am sure we are causing upwelling of water as well which would bring cooler waters to the surface. What this means is a remote possibility that this would slow down intensification process until the system starts moving.

Convergence and divergence continue to be decent with this system..

So we can see the atmosphere is favorable for some slow intensification over the next 24 hours. 
Now lets take a look at the guidance from 00z..

We start off with the CMC or the GGEM which actually went east from its 12 Z run..

On the opposite end of the spectrum was the GFS which shifted about 300 miles west.. (remember this)

As you can see the GFS brings Nova scotia into play. However..we raise a red flag when looking at the GFS because it is very similar to the NOGAPS which is below:

Notice how they are very much alike. . With the progressive bias of the NOGAPS ..this puts the GFS almost in the same outcome which is likely due to its progressive nature as well and in addition to that not having high enough heights with the middle ridging.

Finally we saved the most consistent model for last and this was consistent with its 12Z run and also is heavily weighted into our tracking and also the best verifying model with performance to date with forecasting leslie.

As you can see the ECM is further west then the GGEM , further west then the GFS (though that shifted west) and further west then the Nogaps as well. 
This would be a very powerful hurricane that could be impacting SNE to Nova Scotia. 

In summary we are expecting a NW movement once it starts to move again followed by a northern movement at which time it may stall again being in very weak currents and then continue northward before turning back towards the NE. 
Remember also as well that if the ridging is stronger then there is a possibility for a further west track..

Nothing is set in stone and please stay tuned to find out where Leslie is going and what you can expect.. 
Another update will be issued in 24 hours!