From Sandy To Potential Noreaster

Lets start this off by saying that our thoughts and prayers continue to go out to those that are still suffering from Hurricane Sandy and those that are still without power from her as well. We understand the dilemma that you are going thru . 
We also think that because of what happened with Sandy and what people are going thru they are kind of in denial about what could possibly happen with the next storm system... 

However, here at Down to Earth we can not look away just because the guidance may be starting to suggest something that we do not want to see. While we are hoping that this next storm does not have any setbacks to those recoveries going on we feel that mother nature goes on and so must we at Down To Earth forecasting center...

And so this brings us to the present situation of which has to do with an upcoming potential Noreaster which would effect the area wed night into thursday.. which after this storm system then things look to warm up so I guess you could say that is the light at the end of the tunnel that may become a little dimmed in the near term..

We have been steadfastly following the guidance as well as reading things around the internet and one thing i need to address is this:

1. I was reading earlier yesterday that we should not be looking at the 850 mb temperature map to  come to any forecast conclusions. Well this is simply wrong. 850 mb temps are the temperatures that are about 5000 feet up in the air. So if you have cold enough air in the upper levels and surface temperatures in the mid 30s..if precipitation is hard enough it can pull that colder air down from above to the surface and allow the precipitation to fall as frozen because it drops the temperature at the surface. This is what is called Dynamics in a storm system.
A. For example of this one only has to look back to last year at the end of October and the air mass ahead of the storm was warmer (then the present one) but the 850s were colder and what happened was Dynamics took over and we had a Historical East Coast Snowstorm at the end of  Oct 2011..

With that said lets begin this with what we have had in place and been using as a tool for the past couple years and it really has not let us down to this day. That would be to look at the NOGAPS for the upcoming storm system.
Now remember this is a very progressive biased model and this is what its showing at 84 hours out..

You can see here that the 00z NAM is very similar to the nogaps in at least the position of the low though of course there is timing difference..

What about the GFS?

GFS is actually pretty much on par with the NOGAPS (progressive) however it is further to the west then the NOGAPS.. (which in using the NOGAPS as a tool it should be further west) .. However one can see that the GFS is kind of on the warm side...

00z UKMET is even more progressive then the most progressive biased model but one thing you can take away from this is that the 850s are colder then for example on the GFS...

And you can also see how all three of these models are very similar overall to the NOGAPS...

We still have two models to look at yet and the next one is the GGEM...

You can clearly see that the GGEM is showing what would be a tightly , solidified Noreaster with interior snows and coastal rains. Keep in mind here that the GGEM is colder then the GFS and usually the GGEM is a warm biased model. So that drops a little hint as to the thermal profile on the GFS with it being to warm.
However this is where it now begins to turn interesting. For about 9-10 runs in a row we now turn to the European Model and this is the model that consistently called for Hurricane Sandy to take a left turn and into east central PA and that was the end result.. So now w hen we look at that model we see the following..

What we see here is not only consistency again with the track of the system..but we also notice the following:
1. A tightly would up organized Noreaster..
2. Much colder at the 850 level and colder then the 12 Z run..
3. We see much of the precipitation in the interior is in the form of frozen and on the order of about 4-8 inches of snow...

Folks it is really hard to go against the ECM when it is at 72 hours out and due to this in combination with the GGEM we have come up with an early scenario map of how things could potentially play out ..More or less a rough sketch and we listed potential impacts to according to the 00z ECM...

What is happening as well is the better dynamics are actually going to be south of the NYC region . This is where if these dynamics occur the better chances of snowfall will occur. As the storm moves further to the north it occludes and it then begins to weaken...

We are not going to put any specifics at this time range but we will note that this system has to be watched very carefully because it will be impacting regions that were just hit by hurricane sandy. 
There is still the possibility that this could go out to sea and not effect the region but with the ECM in its prime time range we think those chances are much smaller..

Again this is just a preliminary scenario map which is subject to change but it is made with the purpose of trying to prepare people for what could be a decent pre winter storm interior and for some heavy rains and winds along the coast. We will update this again 24 hours from tonight!