Final Update On Sandy Oct 28, 2012

This will be our final actual official outlook on Hurricane Sandy. As far as track wise we are not changing anything in reference to the track. We feel pretty strongly that where we have this making landfall ..Sandy should make landfall..and then move at a west northwest movement from there before moving North.. So for those who may have missed the map here that map is once again:

While not changing the track we are not changing any of the information that is on that track. We still feel that winds could be sustained from 65-75 MPH with wind gusts not out of the question reaching 100 MPH (mainly across NYC & LI) Further inland locations should be 50-65 MPH with gusts reaching 85 MPH not out of the question.

This will be a dangerous storm. The one factor that makes this storm even more dangerous is the factor that these winds will be over a 24-36 and perhaps 48 hour time period.. Top this off with rainfall on the order of 4+ to 10 inches and you have a recipe for disaster with trees coming down, powerlines going down ..and Flooding where the heaviest rains set up.
We been informed early in the evening on Saturday that Pennsylvania Power and Light company is anticipating widespread power outages and if and when that does occur that it could be out for as long as 8 days. 
While many are calling this a NorEaster..Sandy is still very much a tropical cyclone and a hurricane at that. While transitioning may be starting to occur..this really is not going to be a saving grace but rather cause the storm to deepen rapidly as it phases with the trough coming towards the east coast. In a nut shell the pressure on this storm could get down into the 930s range which would really = a much stronger hurricane but because it will become a Hybrid it will still only be a category 1 ..if it were purely tropical. The question is on WHEN does it become extratropical ..

So we are looking at the following: 
1 Winds 50-65 MPH gusting to 85 inland locations (NE burbs of the big cities ) to 65-75 MPH with gusts up to 100 over the areas mentioned above..And again what is bad is that this will be over at least a 24 to perhaps 48 hr time frame that this occurs.
2. 4-10 inches of rain depending on where you are located which will lead to #3
3. Flooding, coastal and Inland areas
4. Storm surge
5 This will be occurring with a full moon .
6. And not hearing to much about this anywhere is the water temperatures are warmer then normal and this should feed a more explosion into the storm itself.
7. Wide spread power outages
8. Structural damage especially to weaker buildings...
We here recommend that once this begins that noone be traveling on the roadways. I mean seriously why put your life in danger?

We ask you if you live in these areas being effected to make sure your loved ones family and friends no the reality of what is heading towards them. It could save their lives! 

Now it seems as though guidance has pretty much settled on a landfall between Seaside Heights and NYC. Exact landfall really is unimportant because once extra tropical the wind field will expand and cover all the way back to locations like in Ohio..
Lets look at the guidance tonight...and quite frankly it is a little on the scary side. 

GFS shows a system getting down into the 940s but perhaps most impressive is this models ensemble means when you look at how tight the isobars are across the region..

The tighter the isobars the stronger the winds and you can see what the means is suggesting.

00z GGEM still takes the system into NYC and then rides down across Northeast PA..

European takes the system down to about 940 and has the landfall around seaside heights NJ.

GFDL is also into central NJ with its landfall.
So as you can see all the guidance is suggesting a Major storm that is going to be effecting those along the east coast. 
There are still people out there that do not believe anything is coming and despite what you tell them they refuse to believe. However, this is not something long range or fantasy but rather in the short term at 48-60 hrs out.

 The image above is the current radar with satellite overlayed and you can already see that moisture is starting to move up into the state of PA.. While the low itself is just down off the east coast of the Carolinas. The image below is the rainbow IR image. 

Now this next image you are going to be seeing is the steering currents and you can see why the system is moving to the NE at the present time but if you look west you can also see the trough that is expected to merge with the system which will help to make the transition from tropical to extratropical. You can also see that trough beginning to take on a slightly negative tilt and this along with the NewFoundland blocking pattern will be enough to tug this system back towards the NW into the state of NJ..

As is had been the case there is still a wall of shear around the system but despite this Sandy has been holding together quite well and is a Cat 1 on the hurricane scale.

Convergence and divergence continue to be decent across Hurricane Sandy..

Strengthening should start to occur once the change from tropical to extra tropical begins to occur. We want to stress that this is indeed going to be a epic storm system and perhaps historical as well as the hurricane season goes out with a bang.
Weather should begin to go downhill today with rain starting to occur later in the afternoon but the brunt of this storm will be felt from Monday morning into the day on tuesday..
As we are putting the finishing touches on this update the 6 Z NAM is coming out so we are going to include those images to show you that even the NAM is on board. The chances of this storm missing us are completely down to Nil..

As you can see the latest NAM also suggests we are in for one heck of a storm over the next 36-48 hours. 
As far as snowfall the only locations we are really seeing for snowfall is in Southwest Central PA into Eastern West VA and also Western VA.. (where they could be looking at snow a foot or more)..otherwise the rest of the region is looking at very heavy rains with very strong gusty winds to hurricane strength.

Remember we will be providing coverage from 12 noon today until around 4:30 PM and then back at 10:30 pm to go till 6:30 AM.

Please folks this is a serious storm and something you want to take serious..

From all of us to all of you being effected by this our prayers and heart felt love goes out to each and every one of you!