Go west Young Man (oct 24th) Part 3

We continue to use the same theme for these updates as long as there are some pieces of the guidance that are still suggesting an out to sea track. While there is still a large amount of uncertainty essentially what this is going to boil down to is the blocking that occurs. This essentially causes Sandy to follow the path of least resistance which some of the guidance suggests is right up the Eastern Seaboard...

We can look at the recent visible satellite image and AVN image and we can see that Sandy is strengthening as she moves towards the North..

Matter of fact the National Hurricane center has this as its most recent location and strength as of 2 AM..
2:00 AM EDT Wed Oct 24
Location: 15.7°N 77.1°W
Moving: N at 10 mph
Min pressure: 988 mb
Max sustained: 65 mph

The system continues to be under decent convergence and divergence and is one reason as to why this is continuing to slowly develop. When we look at the vorticity images we can still see that we are not dealing with a vertically stacked system but we are closer to having them better aligned then we were last night at this time..

However , tonight there is one aspect that we are not liking as far as the developing to continue and that is the shear seems to have increased to the north of the system which it will be heading towards.

You can see how Sandy is facing a higher amount of shear off to the North of the system and we would really like to see that clear out of the path as Sandy moves north. This high of shear could do a # on the system and cause it to weaken.. however ..none of the guidance is really suggesting that to occur.
Instead what guidance is suggesting seems to be in two camps. Now we never look at models like the JMA so you will never see us discussing them. However of the models we look at we have seen the following with tonights GFS run..

Now this is the 00z GFS and while many are looking at this run and saying its heading out to sea which is the truth of what the model is showing is they are so focused on the negatives that they forget to look at the positives and that is that the whole upper level environment is completely different from its prior run and that it is actually further west then the 18 Z GFS was.

However once again lets turn to the ensemble means and see if it agrees with the operational run of the GFS..

We see a solution in steep contrast to the operational and a further west solution then the operational. What this implies is that there is a greater amount of members that show the system being stronger and hugging the east coast.. and a few of them are supportive of the GFS..

So lets look at the GGEM because this model is another one that is heading way east and out to sea and the GGEM has no interaction with the incoming trough..

Instead what the GGEM does tonight is escape Sandy out to sea and then spins up a Noreaster type system in the vicinity of where the Tropical system should be. We put no faith what so ever in the GGEM solution..

So now lets look at the more interesting models and that would be the ECM and Navy Nogaps. It must be noted that these two models have not really budged in what they are showing...

As you can plainly see the ECM is showing one Epic or Historical Storm in the making which would bring Hurricane force winds with 60 + MPH to the region and 100 + into the NJ region which would certainly mean a dangerous storm..

Lets look at the UKMET 

This run of the UKMET is actually west of the 12 Z run earlier in the day yesterday..So if you are looking for trends then the trends tonight have occurred on the GFS/UKMET which are trending towards a phased system. Trough energy with the Tropical system means that by the time it does reach this area it would be a  extratropical system or a Hurricane hybrid system.

Now lets go to the reason why we think these further east solutions are just wrong.

As you can see the NOGAPS model has actually shifted west a little bit and this is in complete harmony with the ECM and when we see this we automatically become concerned because this is a progressive biased model which it is not going out to sea  (which its fast bias would take it to) ..So when it signals west ..and other guidance is east ..the other guidance should come back west towards that solution...

Going back briefly to the ECM we want to add this image in here because there will be cold air wrapping in with this system and besides the hurricane hybrid system effecting the east coast we could also be dealing with snow in the higher elevations.

So in summary we have the following:

1. the GFS continues to be a right and out to sea track but has shifted further west.
2. The ECM would indicate a pretty frightening system for alot of the region and interior snowfall as well.
3. The Nogaps continues to show the same general solution over its past several runs ..
4. The outcome of the track is highly dependent on trough energy streaming in and capturing sandy and whether or not it is a partial or full phase..

Impacts that potentially could be expected..

1. Winds in E PA at 60 mph with gusts to 80 mph
2. Winds in NJ (especially North of the system) could have winds at 100 mph WITH HIGHER GUSTS..
4. Coastal flooding and roadways flooding..
5. Potential for trees to fall from very heavy rains on the order of at least 7 inches of rainfall
6. Potential for power outages as well...

We are using the word potential right now because there is still alot of uncertainty..even though ensemble means are much more closer to the ECM/NOGAPS then they are to the operational run. 

It is beginning to appear more likely that the storm will occur..just to what extreme has to be answered yet. It is never to early to have in place an emergency plan just in case these worst scenarios do end up verifying...

Stay tuned next update will be after 11 PM tonight...

Buckle up for what could be a wild ride! 

*** Note we have read that people are saying that the hurricane models are mainly out to sea. Well there are two reasons for this we feel. Alot of them are GFS data based which since the OP GFS is east then the hurricane models are likely to be east as well. 

If this is indeed a bonafide threat the GFS should start coming back around when it gets to 72 hrs out...

Stay Tuned for more updates