Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Will 96 L Develop or Not Before Time runs out?

What we are looking at here is a image of 96 L. As of tonight the National Hurricane center has the chances of development at 80% or other wise a very high probability, Judging by the image above we actually think that this could be a tropical depression. Wunderground was showing winds at 35 MPH..This would be enough to classify...
However...National Hurricane center has decided to keep it listed at 80%. 

While certain conditions have improved since last night at this time (24 hrs later) .. other conditions remain the same and are pretty hostile. One of these is the increasing shear around the system ..
You can see how the shear is increasing all to the north and to the west of the system that is trying to develop. And these conditions are expected to continue over the next couple days. And you can really see how high this shear is ...
You can see that very near the developing cyclone is shear from 30 to as high as 50-60 knots..And keep in mind this system is moving the same direction west north west..
Now the other positive is the vorticity has become a little bit tighter ..in other words not as stretched out and elongated...and dry air is not really a concern for development..
And finally the convergence and divergence across the system is decent as well..
However we see the ECM model is not very enthusiastic with the system. You can see that it shows the system at 24 and 48 hrs out..

 However..by 72 hours the system is all but vanished..
And you can see that the GFS is in relative agreement with the ECM on this system essentially fading away or getting tangled up into the upper level low to the north of the system..
So even if this system does manage to develop it looks like its going to be a very short lived system with about 72 hrs or so in existence to remain. 
Now there is always the remote possibility that because there really is not yet a closed center of circulation that this could change once it officially becomes a tropical cyclone..
However it seems that just about all guidance is in agreement with this not lasting beyond 72 hours..

Here is the GGEM and the UKMET ...
GGEM is at 48 hrs and 66 hrs and the UK is at 48 and 72



So with all guidance pretty much stacked against any real development of this system we think that the furthest this will get in development will be a Tropical Depression (which as stated it could be there already now..) but with a increasingly hostile environment this will be a very short tracking storm system....

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