All Along We Been Saying West

We want to start this right off with the weather briefing from MT Holly which will be updated again later today (Thursday) ..This is from wednesday...


• Potential continues for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the region 
early next week.
• This storm will be associated with what is currently Hurricane Sandy.  This storm, if 
it moves toward us, will bring multiple threats to the region:
• Strong damaging wind gusts
• Extremely heavy rainfall
• Major flooding along streams and rivers
• Major coastal flooding (full moon occurs on October 29)

We would like to add storm surge on to this in addition to what they have above and by the end of this discussion I am sure you will understand why...

It is important to keep in mind that nothing is set in stone yet and the track of this system and its intensity will really be key to impacts as well as when the transition from Tropical to Extra tropical takes place...Another likely hood potential is that when the storm does make the transition the wind shield will probably expand....

As Mt Holly concludes with this ..

. However, the 
likelihood of the storm affecting our region has increased over the past 24 hours.

We totally agree and we will get more specific...

Lets take a look at the system first of all...along with current information as of 2 AM...

You can clearly see the eye of Sandy over the Island of Cuba...and this is the latest info as of 2 AM.. 

..CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE SANDY LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... ...WIND GUST TO 114 MPH REPORTED IN SANTIAGO DE CUBA...

2:00 AM EDT Thu Oct 25 Location: 20.1°N 75.9°W Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 957 mb Max sustained: 110 mph

Sandy is just underneath being a Major Hurricane at this point and time and the one thing that concerns us is that there is still high Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential once Sandy exits off the cuban Island..

This is rather important because if Sandy does not weaken to much before crossing the island and she gets back over the open waters there is that potential that she could become a Major Hurricane Cat 3.
The other thing that we have to remember is that essentially for some time Sandy is going to be traveling over the Gulf Stream waters and these are very warm waters and in case you are not familiar with where this is we have the image below:

On the map above the Gulf stream would be the white shading. So we have a system that will be going back into higher TCHP content as well as a system that will be traveling over some warmer waters of the Gulf stream. This means that the potential for further strengthening is there once she makes the exit back over the waters.
Now we have been saying all along that the ultimate track of this is going to depend on the Newfoundland Block that is in place and the ridging that is between the ULL and Sandy. The GFS lacks this ridging and hence it allows an escape route to the east north east....however it does end up retrograding back to the west towards Nova scotia. It should be noted that the GFS is now the lone model when it comes to this NOT effecting the USA or the Northeast /Mid Atlantic area..

That would be 150 hours out. However once again..the ensembles have painted a different picture...

That would be at 132 hours out on the ensemble means. Please keep in mind that the GFS has a progressive bias to it . Speaking of progressive biased models lets take a look at the most progressive biased and suppressed bias model there is which is the 00z NOGAPS..

You can see that the most progressive biased model there is is still staying consistent and showing a much further southwest solution then the GFS and this would not paint a pretty picture across the mid atlantic region .
However...as they say you have not seen nothing yet.... Next up is the 00z GFDL

Good luck on making the pressure out on that one. The GFDL takes a track very similar to the NOGAPS which you will see is also very similar to the only other model that has been consistent which is the European computer model.
Now for this model we have several images with different views so you can see just how intense this system gets..

The above are all images from the European Computer model which has pressure as low as 934 mbs and a landfall (second one) in DE at which time it moves NW...
Next up is the 00z GGEM...and as you can see this will be another model that does not paint a pretty picture across the region...

And just for posterity sake is the UKMET which has more of a SE to NW tracking and literally backs up west from 120-144 

The reality of the situation is that models are coming into better agreement and the two models that have been leading the way have been the Nogaps and the ECM. We would be foolish if we were to forecast against these two models and especially the ECM considering we are now getting down into short term range and this is when ECM is at its prime and its been locked into this solution now for at least the past 192 hours.

The one thing that we do not like right now is the high shear that is to the north but you can see that around the system itself the shear is increasing and thus far Sandy has not had any problem strengthening even with the shear on the high side.
As Sandy works her way along the gulf stream and moves off towards the North and then eventually NW she should intensify some. Like we said we would not be surprised (depending on the effect cuba has on her) if she became a Major Hurricane.
Now as she gets further north she will start to phase with the trough coming in from the west and will begin to take on Extra Tropical Status. It is at this time that the wind field could expand and it is at this time that we will be dealing with multiple effects...

1. Storm surge
2. Strong Damaging Sustained winds of around 60-75 MPH with higher gusts for a brief period of time.
3. Heavy Rain
4. Beach Erosion..
5, Those in western PA and WV will be dealing with a potential blizzard with snowfall ranging in feet ..especially high elevations.
6. Trees will easily come down in these type of winds and so will power lines ..
7. Flooding and coastal Flooding
So in a nutshell if the scenarios above come to fruition it will be best if you are prepared and start to prepare now because it is never to soon to do something that may just save your life.

You know we are not an outlet that likes to hype but we can not deny whats showing up on the guidance and is happening. 
There is still time for things to change and though the GFS is an outlier model we can not completely discard it ..however it is pretty much out numbered by all guidance...

Stay tuned and we will be providing coverage for the whole day thursday into early friday morning around 6 AM...