Hurricane Sandy Update October 26 2012

So we want to get into this right away. If you read back thru our past updates on this system we mentioned one thing that we did not like about the current atmosphere and that was the shear that was to the North of the system with in its projected path.. It was this shear that we said IF it would decrease that Sandy had a chance to become a major but that shear has never decreased. You can see this by looking at these two images...

There continues to be very high shear effecting this system . There are a few things that have to be remembered when it comes to tropical cyclones..
#1.. While severe weather such as Tornado's and thunderstorms need shear to form..a Tropical cyclone needs the shear to be as low as possible. Generally you would like to see about 5-10 knots and with an anti cyclone built over top of it. You can see the shear above is much higher then that. 10-20 knots is still manageable but it will slow down development and if shear is to high it can also rip a storm into pieces..
#2. A Tropical cyclone has to follow the steering currents and take the path of least resistance. It can not buck the flow so to speak. 
#3. Never use global models for a Tropical Cyclone pressure as they tend to either make them to deep or they tend to not be deep enough. Global models are good for trends and tracks...

Now with that being said you can see that there is a trough that is working its way towards the east coast and you can also see that there is a area of decreasing shear and this should allow the ULL to move a little off to the east which should allow the shear to decrease some. Pretty much at the present time Sandy has taken a beating with winds now down to 85 MPH but still a hurricane.

However you can see that despite the more ragged looking appearance that there is still some deep convection present by the brighter white shading in the visible satellite image. Presently Sandy is moving NNW and that is because she has no choice but to because of the steering currents that she is subjected to..

Presently the convergence and divergence across the system is excellent and at the very least this means that Sandy should be able to hold her own..She may weaken slightly more but as that shear decreases she will once again begin to intensify... 

Also still yet one more thing to keep in mind that what is happening to is sandy has been going thru some islands and land masses albeit small and this can also disrupt a system . This system really is not expected to start intensifying for about another 24 hrs ... And if a pressure says 944 for example 24 hrs from now a good rule is to add about 10 mbs on to that.. so reality says it would be 954 mbs..  Again though ..we do stress that the shear has to decrease as is suspected to happen and occur.
So lets look at tonights model guidance and it seems like we have two separate camps...On one side of the camp is the GFS and the UKMET. Both the GFS and UKMET allow the storm to be captured but at a further north position so the landfall is slightly further north. 

The GFS is kind of odd in the fact that it actually takes the system back south from 120 to 126 hours before it starts to move off to the NE. We been saying that the GFS will not really have a clue until it gets to about 72 hours and out.. But lets look at the ensemble means and you can see what the ensembles actually do with Sandy..

You can see its further south and actually takes the system into NE PA. This tells us the GFS is having a lot of issues with the players on the field and why the model run is so jumpy from just 6 hrs prior.
Here is the UKMET..

And you can see the UKMET is generally on the same page as the GFS. This is not exactly a camp I would like to base a forecast on because the Ukmet is generally a poor model to use for tropical cyclones.
Next up we will take a look at the GGEM which keeps the system off shore but then retros back towards Nova Scotia.

And this is the lone ranger model tonight. As it is further north then any of the other guidance. Now what makes this interesting is the follow runs that we will be posting and that is the ecm and the nogaps and the GFDL and the HWRF...

You can see that both these models clearly are more in line with the NOGAPS and ECM with taking this in across the delmarva region and then into PA they go. GFDL is over SE PA. 

Now we are very big when it comes to consistency with models and especially models where the resolution is greater then your normal standard model scheme used. Both the Nogaps and the ECM use the 4DVAR model scheme which is much more reliable then those that do not use it...

These models have been scary consistent..

You can see that this lines up pretty well with the GFDL. The ecm takes a landfalling hurricane into ocean city Md. Now lets look at the NOGAPS..

You can see that this model is being consistent from the get go with this particular system. All guidance shows a fairly large substantial storm system effecting the region.  So there you have your guidance for tonight and what it is suggesting. The only one that would have less effect on us would be the GGEM and the UKMET. .. 
HPC put this out as the rainfall for the next 5 days..

And you can almost pick out the track depiction very well on that image.  And here is the latest track as of 2 AM from the National Hurricane Center..

We find this quite interesting because it actually realizes the track that we had put out at 10:45 pm which showed the effects that can potentially be existing..

At this point and time we have no changes from the track that we had issued back at 10:45 pm yesterday evening.  This is a first call track..and we listed the impacts on there as well. The one thing we did not list is the snowfall that can potentially be falling in places like central to western PA and into WVA. Some of these locales (mainly higher locations) can get up into the feet range.

Expectations landfall should be going across anywhere from the Delmarva region into SNJ area. We are going with a blend of the ECM/Nogaps and ECM ensemble means. Once this system enters into the inland region it will begin to make a transition into an Extra tropical cyclone. 

Heavy rainfall can be expected on the order of 6-10 inches of rain
Sustained winds of 65-75 mph are quite possible with gusts to 100 MPH not out of the question. These higher gusts should be N and NE of the center. Which means for those that are in the NE quad will have a more serious implications as that is the worst side you want to be on.
Beach Erosion along with Coastal Flooding & Inland flooding.
Widespread power outages .. Wide spread downed trees. And some buildings could end up being loss (the less sturdy ones)..
We want to stress that we have are not entirely set in stone yet but we are becoming more and more concerned with the eventual outlook. 
We also want to stress that unless things change this will be approaching the area in the monday to tuesday time frame...

Please do not take this storm lightly and feel free to pass all information to your family and friends .

Again we want to stress that there is still time for changes either for the worst or the better but presently we are riding the blend of the ecm/nogaps..