Go West Young Man (Oct 23) Part 2

While the forecast is certainly not set in stone at this point and time we want to address a few issues in this update on Tropical Storm Sandy...

We are reading around the internet comments such as " It is rare for storms to turn left into the coast such as is being shown" 

Well lets look at just one piece of the latest guidance and what we have done is thrown 3 images into one image with the hours of 120 , 144, 168 ..from top to bottom..

While there is a slight NW movement ..this is basically showing a storm that is moving up along the coast... The reason this is doing as it is -is because of the strong blocking that is in place so it takes the path of least resistance.. Think about it ..how many times have we seen storms (tropical in nature move from the east to the west or from the SE to the NW? So the statement of a system moving in from the SE to the NW is not rare this happens with tropical cyclones quite often..

Second of all we are hearing alot about well the GFS operational is out to sea...

This statement has MERIT however if the statement has merit does it make it a reality? Remember when an ensemble means disagrees with the operational it is a red flag to the operational run...

So here we are looking at the GFS 12 Z ensemble means at 180 hrs. HUGE difference. So this is definitely a sign that the operational is off in its own little world. When you check out the members 

12 Z GFS ensemble members 

You see this very clearly when looking at the members...  

Now lets look at the NOGAPS... and this is very important as well.. Remember the bias of this model is that it is the MOST PROGRESSIVE model out there. That means if a storm was going to end up EAST then this model with its progressive bias would be the one to show it. Is it showing Sandy going east? Lets look at 126 thru 144 ...from top to bottom...

As you can clearly see this most progressive model is showing a huge impact across the region and it is also very clearly west of the operational GFS...and it is also in line with the ECM... Lets look at the ECM in a clearer closer image...

Now notice we are no longer talking about something that is really long range but rather something that is medium range and begins across the southern areas in the day 5 time frame. Essentially this is getting into the wheel house time zone of the ECM. In other words the model starts becoming hard to beat. 

1.So we have the Nogaps which is west flagging the Op GFS..
2. We have the GFS own ensemble means and members flagging the GFS Operational Run..
3. We have the most reliable model (ECM) showing a storm that would greatly impact the area with huge implications...

Those huge implications we pointed out last night but Mt Holly today points them out as well...


• Potential for a very dangerous autumn storm system to affect the 
region early next week. 
• This storm will be associated with what is currently Tropical Storm 
Sandy.   This storm system will bring multiple potential threats to the 
region.
• Strong damaging wind gusts, extremely heavy rainfall, major inland  
flooding and major coastal flooding are all possible with the storm.
• The track of the storm will determine the area which is impacted; 
there is considerable uncertainty with the storm track this far in 
advance of the event.

So now lets look at the storm currently...

Sandy is becoming better organized and this is the 5 PM info...

5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 23
Location: 14.3°N 77.6°W
Moving: NNE at 6 mph
Min pressure: 993 mb
Max sustained: 50 mph

The system continues to be under a excellent convergence and divergence pattern...

While the vorticity centers are still not vertically stacked they are becoming closer to being vertically stacked....

Wind shear is actually starting to lessen across the area as well to its north...

So while nothing is set in stone yet .. It is very pertinent that anyone along the east coast pays attention to the latest updates and guidance and statements regarding Tropical Storm Sandy. We do expect Sandy to become a hurricane..

We will note that the GGEM takes Sandy out to sea however...the GGEM ensemble means as well disagree..

So essentially we have two operational models (GFS/GGEM) that are in disagreement with their own ensemble means and the most reliable model showing a huge impacting storm across the region ..and the ensembles of the GFS also showing the same scenario....

We will update this again later tonight with the 00z guidance!