Tropical Discussion Ramblings on 96 L

If you were not aware we have another invest in the Atlantic Ocean and the National Hurricane Center has this at a 60% chance of developing in the next 48 hrs..

The above is the national Hurricane Center showing the AOC with a 60% chance of developing ..However..we think that is being just a little generous considering the look at the first image at the top. .
There are several things now that are at work against this developing...

1. First none of the global guidance models really do anything with 96 L.

More importantly is the size of the vorticity and we do not yet have a closed system which means we do not have a vertically stacked system . But lets look at the vorticity ..

 As you can see the vorticity is very elongated from SE to NW ..Whenever you have an elongated system it always takes longer to organize. Unlike other systems however this does not really have much dry air standing in its way to developing...

However what we do see when looking at the shear tendency map that we see increasing shear not only to its west but also to its north and pretty much across the whole atlantic. This shear is the reason why NADINE (long lived) has once again weakened along with the cooler SSTS which Nadine created..
So we have increasing shear and you can see that this is anywhere from 20 knots or more..

So this factor along with the elongated vorticity are really actually going to put a hinder to development. Another factor that we have to consider is the tropical cyclone heat potential chart..

Now as you can see we have some pretty low TCHP  that 96 L is going to be going across if continuing to head on a west north west heading. The  greatest TCHP is actually east of the Lesser Antilles Islands. So if it were to head on a mainly make it into the Carribean it would have a much higher chance of developing. 
Convergence and divergence across the system are actually pretty decent at the present time..

As we mentioned however...there are some pretty strong signals from the environment that this will have a much more difficult time organizing due to the strong shear, increasing shear and the vorticity being stretched out and elongated & the lower TCHP as depicted above.

Which way should this 96 L move. For that we have to look at the steering currents for the flow which 96 L would be subjected to and that is mainly a west north west projection..

This should mean a west Northwest movement however you can clearly see that thanks to Nadine there is a weakness in the ridge and this should begin to move more off to the NNW and then N and then NNE and not really have any impact on the USA...

So right now we are putting the chances of development for this system at a 30 % chance and we would not be surprised to see this never develop since it does not have a COC (Center of Circulation.
This system has a lot of improvement to accomplish in order to be able to develop...

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This section is going to be in reference to severe weather today which is Tuesday the 13th. We are going to look at the two most important images from the Storm Prediction Center to start..

You can see that we have SPC showing a 5% risk area and I would think they have to be contributing this to one single Parameter which would be the shear.

And without a doubt there is impressive shear ..However bear in mind yesterday when they issued a tornado watch for parts of TN and to the south of TN that not one single report occurred tornado wise in that region and over all we only had 7 reports on the day...

 So the question is what caused the severe outlook by SPC to bust so bad yesterday. Essentially CAPE was marginal ..looking at the CAPE once again we see the same thing with about 500-1000 CAPE and less into Ohio region.. 

 Another reason was that the EHI and the Helicity which are two tornado parameters were just not present and with the one  above being the EHI and the one below being the Helicity you can see that they are not really supportive of the tornado outlook that was issued..

There was still yet one other reason and that was because the region that was highlighted yesterday already had cloud cover in place and ongoing rain in the over night period and if one were to take a look at the current radar as of 4:45 AM here you will see once again that the same scenario is once again occurring. Whenever this happens and occurs you end up with that rain helping to stabalize the atmosphere and helping with keeping day time heating from actually occurring which will generally keep the temperatures in the 70s.

So we are not going to issue an actual map but at the present time we are going to say we are going to disagree with their outlook and say that any severe would be more isolated in nature.