Hurricane Sandy Update Oct 27th 2012

We want to start this off with Mt Hollys Briefing from Friday. The reason why we are doing this is that it has become quite clear that Hurricane Sandy which will be turning into and take on extratropical status will be impacting the area . For some time we have been talking about this because we have been adamant about sticking with the ECM/NOGAPS blend.

A hurricane or strong tropical storm will affect the mid-Atlantic region late this 

weekend into early next week.  Sandy will bring multiple dangers to our area:

• Strong damaging sustained winds up to or exceeding hurricane strength (74 

mph) over a prolonged period of time (24 to 48 hours).  Gusts will be higher.

• Extremely heavy rainfall.

• Major flooding along streams and rivers.

• Major coastal flooding.  The full moon on October 29 just makes things worse.

• The eventual track of this storm will determine the area which is impacted.   While 

Sandy could still track a little further to our north, or a little further to our south, we 

will be feeling her effects one way or the other starting late this weekend (Sunday), 

continuing into Tuesday of next week.  

• Next briefing package will be issued by 1000 AM Saturday, October 27

th

.

• Monitor our website at weather.gov/phi.

As you can clearly see from the above that we are talking about a prolonged period of time as to having winds at hurricane force across the region with higher gusts.

The models have generally come into a much better consensus tonight and we are going to look at as much guidance here as we can. 

 We are starting off with the NOGAPS and as you can see by the NOGAPS it is showing essentially a central NJ landfall. 

The above is now the 00z ukmet and you can see this model to would take this thru NJ and into central PA. 

The above is the GFS and essentially showing the same thing as the rest of the guidance above so far and if you remember we said that this model would start to wake up at 72 hours and under . Now however i think it is very important now since we are mentioning the GFS that we look at its ensemble means..

Folks there is just no way to describe the above image other then by saying that is the most jaw dropping image we have seen in a long time. And the ensemble means takes this into central PA as well.

Now this above is the GGEM..Remember just 24 hrs ago it was essentially showing a miss and it to has now joined back in with the rest of the guidance in taking this thru what appears to be New Jersey.

The above is the GFDL from 00z and this is a little further south with it going thru the Demarva region. However we are still indeed talking about a powerful storm system.

The above is the NAM and with this as well you can see we are talking about going across NJ. 

Finally this brings us to the ECM and you can see that the ECM is taking this into around the Cape May Nj area and then moving it due westward into PA..

The track of this storm is going to put many of us in the NE Quad which is the most dangerous side of the storm that you would want to be caught in or maybe not depending on how you are viewing it.
Now lets look at the current environment for Sandy..

Convergence and divergence continues to be rather excellent across the storm system..
However, the one thing that we still do not like is the factor that the shear has not slackened off and a wall of shear is still in its pathway..

It is somewhat lessening around sandy but it is still something we do not like to see. However we are anticipating for her to hold herself together thanks to the convergence and divergence ..however we would still like to see that shear drop off.

You can see the steering currents are such that they will take sandy towards the NNW for the time being.

You can also see on the satellite overlay image with the radar that rain is already starting to pick up across the south east part of the USA as that is associated with Sandy..

What is happening right now with sandy we feel is a continuation of the dry air and shear that is taking  a toll on her.

Folks this is a serious  storm and we are asking all our  readers to stand guard and  keep am eye on this storm as it has deadly potentials across the region.
next update will be 24 hours from now!

Stay tuned for the next discussion on this DANGEROUS storm!